Vladimir Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly claimed that no existing system can intercept the nuclear-capable Oreshnik hypersonic missile deployed in Belarus. AFP

Russia's defence ministry has activated its fearsome Oreshnik hypersonic missile system in Belarus, placing London squarely in the firing line.

Travelling at Mach 11, this nuclear-capable weapon could devastate the UK capital in just minutes, sending shockwaves through Britain as the Ukraine war rages on. Announced on 30 December 2025, the move amplifies Moscow's threats to Western nations.

A ceremonial event in Belarus highlighted the missile's combat readiness. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed the first units are in place, following a summit with Vladimir Putin. Up to 10 missiles may be stationed there, according to reports.

The Oreshnik, derived from the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile, represents a leap in Russian military technology. It can carry three to six warheads, either conventional or nuclear, and manoeuvre mid-flight to evade defences. Putin has repeatedly claimed no existing system can intercept it.

First Combat Test: Strike on Dnipro

The missile made its debut in November 2025, targeting Ukraine's Pivdenmash plant in Dnipro. Fired from Russia's Astrakhan region, it struck in just 15 minutes, deploying six warheads with submunitions. No fatalities occurred, but the attack damaged infrastructure.

Ukraine's intelligence described the strike as retaliatory, following Kyiv's use of US-supplied ATACMS and UK Storm Shadow missiles on Russian soil. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned it as 'nuclear blackmail,' urging allies for stronger air defences. Debris analysis by Ukrainian experts revealed the missile's hypersonic traits.

The incident prompted emergency consultations between NATO and Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the war's phase 'decisive,' while Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský labelled the attack an escalatory move to intimidate Europe. NATO pledged unrestricted support for Ukraine's defences.

Strategic Placement in Belarus

Satellite imagery analysed by US researchers from the Middlebury Institute and CNA identified a likely deployment site at a disused airbase near Krichev in eastern Belarus. Construction began in August 2025, featuring rail transfer points and camouflaged launch pads, suitable for mobile Oreshnik launchers.

Experts estimate the site could house up to three launchers, with others possibly dispersed. Jeffrey Lewis, a non-proliferation specialist, noted the placement sends a political signal rather than enhancing military reach, given the missile's 5,000-kilometre range already covers Europe from Russian territory.

Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin framed the deployment as a counter to 'Western aggressive actions.' Lukashenko echoed this, stating it ensures respect through strength. The move aligns with Russia's revised nuclear doctrine, allowing strikes if allies enable attacks on Moscow.

Broader Implications for Europe and Peace Talks

Deploying the Oreshnik in Belarus would shorten flight times to European targets by potentially minutes, according to Western analysts. It responds to US plans for hypersonic missiles in Germany from 2026, as noted by former British defence attaché John Foreman. Analysts warned that this tit-for-tat move risks reigniting Cold War-era tensions.

The timing coincides with faltering peace negotiations in Ukraine. US President Donald Trump hosted Zelenskyy in Florida, claiming talks are 'closer than ever' to a resolution. Key issues include Russian demands for buffer zones in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, force withdrawals, and control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

Putin warned that without concessions, Moscow would expand territorial gains and deploy more Oreshnik systems. He praised the missile's ability to deliver devastating conventional strikes akin to nuclear impacts if used en masse. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov blamed Western arms supplies for provoking such responses.

UK's Nuclear Deterrent: A Counter to Rising Threats

Britain's nuclear deterrence strategy centres on a sovereign, submarine-based system designed to counter extreme threats, such as those posed by Russia's Oreshnik. The UK maintains Continuous At-Sea Deterrence (CASD), with at least one Vanguard-class submarine on patrol at all times, armed with Trident missiles and UK-designed warheads. The system ensures an invulnerable second-strike capability, which has been operated under Operation Relentless for over 55 years.

The 2025 Strategic Defence Review reaffirmed the deterrent's role as the bedrock of national security, committing to the Dreadnought-class submarines entering service in the early 2030s and a new sovereign warhead programme with £15 billion in funding. Details on warhead numbers and missile loads remain undisclosed to preserve strategic ambiguity, complicating adversary calculations.

Integrated with NATO, the UK's deterrent is assigned to the alliance's defence, enhancing collective security without relying on tactical weapons. Discussions are underway with the US and NATO to explore enhanced participation in nuclear missions, building on partnerships like the 1958 Mutual Defence Agreement. This approach, focused on minimum credible force, has seen the stockpile reduced significantly since the Cold War while maintaining credibility against peers such as Russia.

Expert Warnings and Global Risks

Arms control experts like Pavel Podvig question the deployment's added value, seeing it as reassurance for Belarus amid its support for Russia's Ukraine campaign. However, it underscores Moscow's reliance on nuclear threats to deter NATO involvement.

Ukraine accused Belarus of aiding Russia to bypass its northern defences, with Zelenskyy warning of regional instability. Al Jazeera reports highlight Russian claims of the missile's uninterceptable nature, fuelling fears of a broader conflict.

As 2025 draws to a close, the Oreshnik's activation heightens the stakes. With no immediate de-escalation in sight, Europe braces for potential fallout from this hypersonic threat.