Salesforce Q3 2026: 5 Key Takeaways for Investors Following $10B Earnings Surge

Salesforce announced its Q3 2026 results on 3 December, beating Wall Street expectations. However, despite strong numbers, the company's stock remains down 29% this year.

This disconnect highlights investor concerns about the company's future growth trajectory, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI). The question isn't just about the latest quarter—it's about whether Salesforce's AI ambitions can truly scale to drive substantial growth or if the company is relying too much on acquisitions rather than organic expansion.

The Numbers: Strong Revenue, Questionable Outlook

Salesforce reported revenue of $10.3 billion in Q3, up 9% year-on-year. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.25, surpassing the forecast of $2.86. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance to $41.5 billion and returned $4.2 billion to shareholders via buybacks and dividends.

AI's contribution to growth was highlighted by Agentforce, which generated $500 million in yearly recurring revenue—a nearly threefold increase from the previous year. Salesforce also closed 9,500 paid Agentforce deals and processed 3.2 trillion tokens on its AI platform.

Despite these impressive figures, Salesforce's stock fell 29% in 2025, compared to a 21% rise in the Nasdaq. This stark divergence reveals what investors are really focused on: not just whether AI is growing, but whether it can grow enough to offset weakness in Salesforce's core business.

Key Concerns Driving Investor Skepticism

1. AI Business Is Still Small Relative to Overall Revenue

While $500 million in AI revenue sounds significant, it constitutes only about 1% of Salesforce's total revenue of $41.5 billion. Even with a 330% increase, AI revenue is unlikely to reach $2 billion until at least fiscal 2027, and needs to hit between $3 billion and $5 billion to meaningfully impact overall growth.

Investors recognise Agentforce's growth but question whether it can scale quickly enough to compensate for the slowdown in Salesforce's traditional business. The core concern is whether AI can become a substantial revenue driver before Microsoft's early lead becomes insurmountable.

2. Microsoft's Dominance Is Enormous and Growing

Microsoft's Copilot ecosystem has reached 00 million paid users, a scale that dwarfs Salesforce's 9,500 deals. While the metrics differ—Microsoft counts user seats, Salesforce counts enterprise contracts—the scale gap is clear.

Microsoft's advantage lies in its platform breadth. Companies already using Microsoft 365, Azure, and Dynamics can adopt Copilot seamlessly. Salesforce specialises in CRM-specific AI use cases, but each new AI feature requires convincing customers to switch or add another vendor. For clients already embedded in Microsoft's ecosystem, adopting Salesforce's AI offerings presents added friction.

3. Salesforce Is Relying on Acquisitions to Drive Growth

A significant portion of Salesforce's projected Q4 growth—about a quarter—is attributed to the recent $8 billion acquisition of data management firm Informatica. Removing this deal from the equation, organic growth hovers around 8–9%, which, while respectable for a mature software company, falls short of investor expectations for rapid acceleration, especially given Salesforce's AI push.

This pattern raises questions: If AI growth is so robust, why does Salesforce need to make such large acquisitions to achieve double-digit growth? It suggests that the core business is decelerating faster than AI expansion can compensate.

4. AI Investment Is Impacting Profitability

Salesforce's free cash flow grew 22% to $2.18 billion in Q3, but fell short of analyst estimates of $2.24 billion. This indicates that investments in AI infrastructure—such as compute capacity, model training, and R&D—are weighing on near-term cash flow.

Across the industry, many software firms are accepting margin compression now to build future AI capabilities. Salesforce has raised its full-year cash flow growth outlook to 13–14%, signalling confidence that this squeeze is temporary. Nonetheless, the missed estimate underscores the real costs involved in scaling AI.

5. Conservative Revenue Targets Signal Cautious Optimism

Salesforce has set a revenue goal of $60 billion for fiscal 2030, from its current $41.5 billion, requiring an average annual growth rate of 9.6%. This modest target appears conservative for a company positioning itself as an AI leader.

There are two interpretations: either management is sandbagging to make the target seem more achievable or signalling that legacy product slowdowns will offset AI gains. If AI were expected to transform the business fully, one might expect a more ambitious target. The current guidance suggests a focus on steady, manageable growth rather than revolutionary change.

What's Next? Key Metrics to Watch

The real proof of Salesforce's AI strategy will be seen in three areas:

• Whether Agentforce revenue crosses $2 billion by fiscal 2028.
• How Microsoft's AI deployment continues to evolve.
• When free cash flow margins recover from the heavy investments in AI infrastructure.

The $60 billion revenue target for 2030 reflects a cautious approach. If AI progresses faster than this conservative forecast, Salesforce's stock could see significant upside. For now, the critical question remains: can Salesforce scale its AI capabilities quickly enough to change the game? The answer will determine whether investors regain confidence or continue to scrutinise the company's growth prospects.