AI Will Not Just Replace Jobs; It Could Force 11 Million Americans Into New Careers

About 11 million US workers may need to move into entirely different occupations by 2035 as artificial intelligence, automation, and wider economic changes reshape demand for labour, according to a new analysis by the McKinsey Global Institute.

The estimate does not mean 11 million Americans are expected to lose their jobs to AI. McKinsey projects that automation could reduce labour demand by the equivalent of about 36 million jobs, while economic growth and AI-related activity could create demand for more than 40 million jobs over the next decade.

Of the workers affected by declining demand, about 25 million could remain in their existing occupations as economic growth offsets falling demand. The remaining 11 million may need to move into different occupational groups.

AI Could Reshape Millions of Jobs

McKinsey estimates that automation could reduce US labour demand by the equivalent of roughly 36 million jobs by 2035. That figure should not be interpreted as 36 million people becoming unemployed. The analysis describes a broader reallocation of labour, with growth in the economy expected to offset much of the reduction in demand caused by automation.

McKinsey estimates that the US economy could generate demand for about 41 million additional jobs over the next decade. This would more than offset the 36 million equivalent reduction in labour demand from automation in its base scenario. The difference is important because the jobs being created may not be in the same occupations, locations or skill areas as those experiencing declining demand.

Millions May Need New Skills

McKinsey estimates that roughly 770,000 workers a year could need to move between occupational groups during the next decade. That would be about 3.6 times the historical average of roughly 215,000 such transitions a year outside the pandemic period. The difficulty of making those moves could also vary considerably.

McKinsey estimates that only about one in seven workers who need to transition could have a relatively direct pathway requiring limited retraining and no wage loss. About four in 10 could face pathways requiring meaningful retraining, while nearly half could encounter larger skill gaps, credential requirements or other barriers. The challenge, therefore, is not simply creating jobs. Workers also need viable routes from declining occupations into growing ones.

Labour Market Movement Remains Limited

The potential workforce transition comes as the US labour market continues to show relatively limited month-to-month movement. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed 7.1 million job openings in August, down from a revised 7.3 million in July. Employers recorded 5.2 million hires and 5.1 million total separations in August. Quits remained at 3.1 million, with the quits rate at 1.9%.

These figures provide context for the scale of worker movement in the labour market, but they do not show that AI is responsible for the current level of hiring, quitting or job openings. McKinsey's analysis concerns longer-term changes in labour demand rather than a measurement of current AI-related job losses.

New Jobs Could Require Different Skills

The McKinsey analysis does not suggest that AI will simply eliminate employment. Its base estimate indicates that automation could reduce labour demand equivalent to about 36 million jobs by 2035, while economic growth, the AI value chain, and other structural changes could generate demand for about 41 million jobs. Software development illustrates how demand can change within an occupation.

McKinsey says job postings for software developers have increased by about 15% since early 2025. At the same time, the gaps in demand are increasingly concentrated in senior and AI-related roles, suggesting that the skills employers seek within the occupation are changing. That means the impact of AI cannot be measured only by comparing the number of jobs created with the number of jobs eliminated. Demand can also shift towards different skills within an existing profession.

The Challenge Is Career Mobility

McKinsey estimates that about 16 million new jobs could open in growing occupations by 2035. But workers cannot automatically move into those positions. The report notes that people differ in their skills, wages, qualifications, locations, and experience, creating barriers between occupations. The analysis estimates that roughly 11 million workers may need to leave occupations where demand is declining and move into entirely different fields.

For those workers, the central issue may therefore be less about whether the US economy has enough jobs and more about whether they can make the transition between the jobs that are declining and those that are expanding. By 2035, the US could have more jobs than it has today. But for millions of workers, reaching those opportunities could require retraining, new credentials or a move into a different occupation altogether.