Commodities round-up: Oil prices recover from Trump shock but concerns over supply remain

Oil prices held steady on Thursday (10 November), recovering from the losses they incurred in the previous session following Donald Trump's surprising victory in the US elections.

At 10.48am GMT, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) front month futures contract was down 0.07% to $45.24 per barrel, while Brent was 0.69% higher at $46.68 per barrel. Trump has publicly backed the de-regulation of fossil fuels and analysts expect his presidency to result in higher production and increased investment in oil markets.

"Prices are being driven by the perception that President elect Trump will centre his energy policies on the increased use and production of fossil fuels, abandoning his predecessor's drive to expand the renewable energy sector," said Michael Van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets.

"It is worth noting, however, so far Trump's policies are heavy on headlines and light on details, so it remains to be seen whether he will follow through with his election campaign promises."

However, oil markets remained heavily over-supplied and investors await an Opec meeting at the end of the month, during which the oil production cartel could announce a cut in production. Earlier this week, Opec's secretary general Mohammed Barkindo, said the 14-country organisation was committed to implement a deal signed in September to cut output in a bid to prop up the market.

In its monthly report released on Thursday (10 November), the International Energy Agency stressed reaching an agreement was pivotal to ensure the markets were not oversupplied and to give oil prices a chance to rise.

"If no agreement is reached and some individual members continue to expand their production then the market will remain in surplus throughout the year, with little prospect of oil prices rising significantly higher," it said. "If the supply surplus persists in 2017 there must be some risk of prices falling back."

Opec's failure to reach a deal to curb production could play in Trump's favour, said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets UK.

"Given that the Opec cartel has failed to materialise any sort of supply cut, or even show a united front, Trump could actually take advantage of this situation and make America's position stronger by aiding the US's already controversial shale oil industry," he explained.

"US shale oil is already playing a chief role and the OPEC cartel has acknowledged that it needs help from non-OPEC players to kerb the supply."

Away from oil markets, gold gained ground, with the Comex gold future contract for December delivery rising $5.60, or 0.44%, to $1,279.10 an ounce. On Wednesday, as it became apparent Trump would win the election, the precious metal posted the biggest intraday rally since the Brexit vote in June, climbing as much as 4%.