Far-Left Militias Tighten Grip on Caracas Streets Amid Fears of Imminent Civil War

Caracas appeared to be sliding into disorder on Sunday as armed militias loyal to the deposed president, Nicolás Maduro, moved into the streets following the withdrawal of regular military units, according to residents and regional analysts.

The groups, which are reported to be aligned with the far left, began patrolling neighbourhoods with assault rifles after US forces detained Maduro on Saturday. Their emergence has heightened tensions in the capital and fuelled concerns among diplomats and observers that Venezuela could face a prolonged period of instability or even civil conflict.

The collectivos, notorious for their far-left affiliations and armed nature, have effectively asserted control across the capital. Armed groups with heavy weapons have taken control of areas where government soldiers have pulled back, increasing instability across the capital. Reports of gunfire near the presidential palace have added to public anxiety, although officials said the sounds were linked to unauthorised drone activity.

Divisions within the military have made the situation worse. La Carlota airfield, a major military base that was previously hit by US strikes, has been abandoned. A single bus now blocks the runway, symbolising the collapse of military control and leaving civilians increasingly vulnerable as armed militias move in to fill the security gap.

Mobilisation and Defiant Rhetoric

Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, a staunch loyalist of the former regime, has been actively rallying officials and troops against perceived US interference. In an audio message circulating among military personnel, Cabello declared, 'These rats attacked, and they are going to regret it for the rest of their lives. Let's reorganise now... and keep moving forward — always forward, always united.' These preparations suggest an impending armed struggle, though it has yet to fully erupt.

Acting President Delcy Rodríguez is navigating a perilous political landscape, attempting to balance the demands of hardliners within the regime and external pressure from the United States. She has declared a 90-day state of emergency, granting security forces sweeping powers to pursue individuals deemed supporters of the US. This has resulted in widespread repression, with militias enforcing order through intimidation and fear.

Escalating Street-Level Repression

Militia patrols on motorbikes, armed with assault rifles, are a common sight in Caracas, manning checkpoints and interrogating citizens. Passersby are being subjected to searches of their mobile phones for content critical of the former regime, leading to at least two arrests for celebrating Maduro's downfall. Journalists have also been targeted, with 14 media workers detained and their equipment confiscated by military counterintelligence.

These tactics echo the historical role of the colectivos in suppressing dissent. In the immediate aftermath of the strikes, smaller groups were observed guarding military installations like the Gen. Francisco de Miranda base, restricting access and fostering an atmosphere of unease. A documented caravan in Cumaná and the presence of armed men near a targeted shopping mall illustrate their sporadic yet intimidating presence.

Experts suggest that this less visible approach may be strategic. By avoiding overt displays of chaos, remaining officials could be aiming to leverage a semblance of order in negotiations with the Trump administration. However, beneath this veneer, the threat of violence remains potent.

Expert Warnings of Coup and Insurgency

Pedro Garmendia, director of geopolitical risk firm The Pinafore Group, has warned of severe repercussions. 'It is telling that the army haven't taken control... We could see a coup d'état in Venezuela. Someone taking advantage of the chaos,' he stated. Garmendia emphasised the colectivos' historical role in bolstering Chavismo during past crises, suggesting they could instigate an armed uprising against what he termed a 'Yankee administration.'

Security expert Adam Isacson has identified numerous potential actors in a violent conflict, including the 100,000-strong colectivos, who are reportedly prepared for urban guerrilla warfare within Caracas' rugged terrain. Intelligence agencies such as SEBIN and DGCIM, with approximately 30,000 agents trained in interrogation and surveillance, could potentially join forces with militias for acts of sabotage.

The Bolivarian Militia, which claims millions of members but possesses around 20,000 core combatants armed with missiles, further exacerbates the threat. Organised crime syndicates, with over 100 groups like Tren de Aragua, and Colombian guerrilla factions such as the ELN, which has thousands of operatives in Venezuela, could exploit the power vacuum to engage in asymmetrical conflict.

Isacson also pointed to regime plans for 'prolonged resistance,' involving small, dispersed units capable of conducting ambushes and bombings. Without diplomatic resolution, a protracted low-intensity conflict could ensue, potentially mirroring the protracted instability seen in Libya if the military fractures further.

Scenarios for Post-Maduro Turmoil

Academic projections present a grim outlook. One scenario, outlined in The Conversation, envisions a popular uprising met with fierce resistance from collectivos, leading to sporadic violence and internal conflict. Another scenario postulates US escalation, targeting militias and potentially igniting an insurgency supported by Russia, China, Cuba, and Iran.

A hybrid conflict scenario looms, characterised by power-sharing arrangements among remnants of Chavismo, opposition factions, and local warlords, with ongoing US strikes aimed at maintaining instability. These potential pathways risk provoking nationalist backlash and foreign interference, echoing dynamics from the Cold War era.

Regional implications are significant, with Colombia already grappling with a refugee crisis and Panama facing US pressure regarding Chinese influence. President Trump's revitalisation of the Monroe Doctrine serves as a stern warning to Nicaragua and Cuba, potentially escalating hemispheric tensions.

US Pressure and Oil Interests

Amid the escalating unrest, US demands have intensified. President Trump has ordered the expulsion of foreign advisors and issued a direct warning to Cabello, stating that strikes would be launched if calm is not ensured. A naval blockade is currently restricting Venezuelan oil exports, effectively forcing compliance.

Trump has announced that Venezuela will cede between 30 and 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States, to be sold at market prices with the proceeds under his administration's control. This initiative, described as a 'start,' aims to leverage Venezuela's oil reserves through American firms like Chevron. However, critics warn that such actions could precipitate a humanitarian crisis if revenues are diverted and critical resources become inaccessible.

Rodríguez is navigating a delicate situation, facing the possibility of a US invasion should she defy Washington's directives. President Trump has not ruled out deploying 'boots on the ground,' a prospect that heightens militia readiness.

A Precarious Path Forward

As of Wednesday, Caracas remains a volatile tinderbox. The entrenched presence of militias perpetuates fear, while the loyalty of the armed forces appears increasingly fractured. Experts are urging diplomatic intervention to prevent a descent into guerrilla warfare or widespread criminal anarchy.

Venezuela's future hinges on swift political transitions, but the entrenchment of armed groups suggests a prolonged period of strife.