Analyst Warns Iran Will Never Surrender But May Pursue Nuclear Weapons Against US and Israel

Iran appears determined to resist external pressure, a leading Middle East analyst has warned. He argued that the regime is unlikely to collapse even after targeted strikes and the death of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Speaking to CBS News, Danny Citrinowicz, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, said expectations that the Iranian government could be quickly toppled were overly optimistic.

'We had our hopes too high,' Citrinowicz explained, suggesting that military campaigns, particularly those relying solely on airstrikes, would not achieve regime change. The analyst emphasised that Iran's institutions remain resilient, and leadership transitions do not necessarily weaken its strategic position.

The warning comes as the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, steps into the role following his father's death during airstrikes on Tehran on 28 February. Analysts believe the younger Khamenei may adopt a more aggressive posture, particularly regarding nuclear capabilities.

Mojtaba's wife, Zahra Haddad‑Adel, was killed in the strike. His mother, Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh, also subsequently died from injuries sustained in the attack, and one of his sons was killed as well. This means at least four immediate family members of Iran's new supreme leader died in the same assault.

Nuclear Ambitions Could Accelerate

Citrinowicz cautioned that Iran could use nuclear development as a deterrent against future attacks. He said the previous supreme leader refrained from crossing the nuclear threshold, despite advancing uranium enrichment programmes.

'They don't have anything else that can deter Israel or the US in the future,' he said, noting that a nuclear bomb may be seen as a necessary measure to safeguard the regime.

The expert said that if Iran moves in this direction, it could seriously change security in the region, making the situation riskier for both Israel and the US. He explained that this would show Iran is thinking differently about its strategy, which could reduce the impact of current military actions. Citrinowicz also said the Iranian regime is unlikely to surrender or agree to any deal without conditions under the current circumstances.

US and Israel Underestimated Iran

The analyst also criticised the planning behind the initial strikes, arguing that US and Israeli strategists overestimated the impact of removing Ali Khamenei.

'All the Iranian experts knew that it's not going to be the case, that this institution is much stronger than the human being,' he said. Citrinowicz described the assumption that the regime would collapse after the leader's death as a 'flawed premise,' suggesting that it underestimated the resilience of Iranian state structures.

He warned that without a clear exit strategy or ground operations, the conflict could drag on, leaving the United States and Israel with unresolved threats.

'It is very hard to think now how this war is going to end,' he said, highlighting major gaps in strategic planning.

Iran is Targeting Gulf States for a Reason

Iran has been launching missile and drone attacks on countries in the Gulf region. Experts believe the goal isn't just military—it's political. By targeting these Gulf states, Iran hopes to create pressure on the US and its allies because they rely on these countries for support and stability.

Citrinowicz explained that Iran sees the Gulf states as the 'weakest link.' In other words, Iran expects that by putting pressure there, it could push the US to slow down or rethink its military actions.

However, this strategy only makes the conflict last longer and makes it harder to keep the region safe.

Ceasefire is Unlikely

Even though President Donald Trump says the campaign is going well, experts warn that the conflict with Iran is far from over. Citrinowicz emphasised that unless Tehran makes major concessions, the risk of escalation stays high.

'As long as this regime is there, there will be no unconditional surrender,' he said. He explained that Iran's leadership is unlikely to surrender unconditionally, and developing nuclear capabilities could become a way for the regime to protect itself. This means the standoff could last a long time and remain very tense.

For governments, military planners, and allies in the region, the message is clear: Iran shows no sign of backing down, so they may need to prepare for a long time.