GTA 6 Could Cost US Economy $1 Billion in Just One Day as 1.5 Million Americans Might Skip Work to Play

GTA 6 could draw 1.5 million Americans away from work on launch day, according to an economist's estimate that puts the potential productivity cost at $1 billion (about £746 million).

The game is scheduled for release on Thursday, 19 November 2026. Some players have already set aside annual leave, and California automotive parts business Burger Motorsports expects staff holidays to slow shipping and customer support.

José García Montalvo, a professor of economics at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, is credited with the national estimate. The calculation has been widely reported but has not been independently verified.

Players Save Their Holiday Days

The Wall Street Journal reported on 28 August that players were saving time off for the game's arrival.

Among them was Bud Burruss, a 36-year-old software engineer who planned to take five days off in the week before Thanksgiving to play GTA 6.

The Thursday release leaves fans with conventional Monday-to-Friday jobs a choice: take leave, play after work or wait for the weekend. For those who have booked holiday, their employers can plan around the absence rather than face an unexpected sickness call.

The Journal's reporting offers examples of those plans, although it does not put a figure on how many Americans will take time off.

The Calculation Behind the $1 Billion Claim

According to coverage, Montalvo based his projection on approximately 1.5 million absences and average annual output of roughly $70,000 (around £52,320) per US worker. He forecast a short-term productivity decline of about 2%, with workers aged 18 to 30 accounting for most absences and the technology sector particularly affected.

WKRC described the figure as an academic projection rather than an official forecast.

The published accounts do not explain how those inputs produce a $1 billion (about £755.7 million) loss in one day or specify what the 2% decline is measured against. They also do not provide a representative survey establishing that 1.5 million Americans intend to miss work.

Repeated coverage has given the estimate a wide audience, but the underlying method remains unclear.

Burger Motorsports Prepares for Slower Operations

Burger Motorsports has already warned that staff leave will affect its services, according to Game Rant.

Customer support, shipping, order processing and general productivity are expected to slow for at least several days from 19 November after employees booked time off for the launch, the publication reported.

The company plans to reduce operations, not close altogether. Customers could still face longer waits for orders and replies while fewer staff are available.

Customers could still face longer waits for orders and replies while fewer staff are available.

A Day Away From Work Is Not Necessarily Lost Output

Staff holidays can delay orders or leave shifts short, but employers may also arrange cover, move deadlines or complete work before people leave.

That makes a one-day absence figure difficult to translate into a lasting economic loss. Work postponed until the following week has a different cost from a sale lost because nobody was available to serve a customer.

For Burger Motorsports, the immediate concern is slower service. For players who have saved their holiday days, it is getting uninterrupted time with a game they have waited years to play.

The launch is already shaping leave plans. Whether it costs American businesses anything close to $1 billion will be harder to establish.