Is Iran Losing Control of the Strait of Hormuz? Ship Traffic Plunges Despite Trump's Claim It Is Fully Open

President Donald Trump has insisted that the Strait of Hormuz is 'open and operating,' yet fresh shipping data suggests traffic through the waterway has fallen sharply, with just six commodity vessels recorded on Monday.

The contrast between the US president's social media statement and reported activity at sea has reignited debate over who, if anyone, controls the strategic chokepoint that handles roughly a fifth of global oil shipments.

The development comes as the six-month anniversary of the US-led strikes on Iran approaches next Friday, with no scheduled talks currently set to end a conflict that has disrupted one of the world's most important maritime routes.

An interim memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, which established a 60-day deadline for a permanent agreement, expired on Monday without an extension being announced.

Ship Traffic Through the Strait of Hormuz Shows Reduced Activity

Trade intelligence firm Kpler, whose data is used by insurers and shipping companies, recorded only three vessels passing through the strait on Sunday and six on Monday, below the 10-day average of 11 vessels.

That represents a significant decline from pre-conflict levels of more than 100 transits per day and remains below the already reduced August average of around 12.

Around 520 commercial vessels are estimated to be waiting in the Arabian Gulf, creating a backlog that could take weeks to clear even if authorities declared the route safe and shipping operations resumed normally.

Ship crossings have fallen by 64 per cent from their post-memorandum peak in early August, dropping into single digits by mid-month as operators and insurers remain cautious.

The administration has challenged those figures. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told reporters that 'dark' transits were taking place, referring to vessels that disable tracking systems and move through the waterway without publicly visible location data.

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, meanwhile, said the US Navy could maintain its blockade of Iranian ports 'indefinitely,' rotating military assets as required to continue pressure on Tehran.

Iran has rejected claims that the waterway is open. The Persian Gulf Strait Authority said on X that 'claims and repeated posts by US officials that the Strait of Hormuz is no longer blocked do not change the reality,' adding that reopening would depend on the fulfilment of conditions linked to the interim agreement.

Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf told parliament that the strait would remain closed until the US ends its port blockade, lifts oil sanctions, releases frozen assets and stops military threats.

Trump's Oman Warning and the Stalled Strait Deal

The situation has become more complicated after reports that Trump may oppose parts of an Oman-brokered arrangement with Iran aimed at managing ship traffic through the strait.

It remains unclear whether the president's public comments will affect negotiations, but they highlight the uncertainty surrounding any potential reopening plan.

When asked in the Oval Office whether he was closer to a final agreement on Iran's nuclear programme than he was 60 days earlier, Trump said, 'Well, they want to make a deal, but they're not gonna make the kind of deal I feel is necessary. Look, we're in there for one reason. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.'

That position leaves little room for the concessions Tehran says are necessary before reopening the waterway. Iranian officials have also warned that they could adopt a more aggressive posture if diplomatic efforts continue to fail, raising concerns about further attacks on military and commercial vessels.

For now, activity at sea does not fully match Trump's description. Nine vessels reportedly transited the strait on Thursday, up from five the previous day, but the figure remained below monthly averages and significantly lower than normal traffic levels.

Two additional ships were attacked in the strait last week, prompting the US to reiterate that it could maintain its naval presence around Iranian ports for an extended period.

Nothing is confirmed yet regarding whether Washington and Tehran will return to negotiations before the six-month mark, so developments should be monitored closely.

IBTimes UK cannot independently verify claims regarding 'dark' shipping movements or the precise number of vessels operating without visible tracking data. The competing accounts from Washington and Tehran should be treated with caution.

What is clear is that the Strait of Hormuz remains a major geopolitical flashpoint, with shipping activity reduced, control disputed and the economic consequences being felt by operators, insurers and consumers.