Is It Moral For Catholics To Bet On Who The Next Pope Will Be?

Is it right for believers to place bets on who will become the next Pope? That question is being hotly debated in Catholic forums, as millions of dollars pour into betting pools during an intensifying papal conclave.

As digital wagering expands across the United States—once mainly focused on sports and casinos—betting platforms have broadened their reach to include the ongoing papal election. Picking the next Pope has become big business. Like, really big.

Millions Riding on the Next Pontiff

While the College of Cardinals meets in secret behind Vatican walls to choose a new leader for 1.3 billion Catholics, punters around the globe are placing serious money on the outcome.

Polymarket, a digital currency betting site, is handling over £13.47 million ($18 million) in wagers tied to the conclave. Meanwhile, Kalshi is managing close to £5.01 million ($6.7 million), according to the Wall Street Journal.

Favourites and Long Shots

On Polymarket, frontrunner Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's Secretary of State, leads with a 27% chance of selection. Close behind is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines, holding a 22% likelihood.

Other contenders include Cardinals Matteo Zuppi (11%), Pierbattista Pizzaballa (10%), and Peter Erdo (7%). On these platforms, users can 'buy' a candidate, effectively betting on their election as Pope, or 'sell' them—betting against their selection.

Tagle's potential win has drawn over £0.97 million ($1.3 million) in bets, the same amount as Dutch Cardinal Willem 'Wim' Eijk, despite his 1% odds. Parolin, Cardinal Peter Turkson, and Cardinal Robert Sarah have each seen over £0.75 million ($1 million) wagered on their candidacies.

Why Papal Elections Are So Unpredictable

The conclave's secrecy and lack of campaigning make betting on its outcome uniquely uncertain.

Tom Nash, a contributing apologist for Catholic Answers, told Catholic News Agency: 'The most well-known cardinals are heading into the conclave,' but visibility doesn't always reflect actual chances of election.

Nash noted that Cardinal Angelo Scola was widely tipped to win in 2013 but failed to secure the two-thirds majority. Instead, the Cardinals chose Jorge Bergoglio, who became Pope Francis.

Even pre-conclave meetings are held privately, meaning the public has limited insight into real frontrunners.

Strict Rules Inside the Conclave

The 1996 apostolic constitution Universi Dominici Gregis forbids Cardinals from communicating outside the Vatican during the conclave. It also bans newspapers, radio, and TV access.

The document explicitly outlaws any 'pact, agreement, promise, or other commitment' aimed at influencing the vote. However, it does permit open discussions and opinion sharing before and during deliberations.

Morality of Betting on the Holy See

Some Catholics have raised ethical concerns about gambling on such a solemn event. While once banned, betting on papal elections is no longer explicitly prohibited by Church law.

In 1591, Pope Gregory XIV outlawed such betting under threat of excommunication. But the 1918 revision of canon law omitted the rule, and no ban has since been reinstated.

Still, Nash cautioned: 'Catholics should prayerfully consider how we can best give witness regarding this 2025 conclave... betting could introduce [corruption] into the conclave.'

He added: 'We don't want to reduce this important event to the level of a mere sports competition.'

What the Church Says About Gambling

The Catechism of the Catholic Church does not condemn betting outright. Wagering is only deemed morally wrong when it involves money needed for essential expenses or becomes addictive.

If you're gambling away rent money or falling into a cycle of dependency, the Church calls that 'enslavement'—a clear moral red flag.

In short: placing a few pounds on your favourite cardinal isn't a sin. But the Church urges moderation and a focus on prayer over profit.