MAGAs Push Identical 'Crash the Economy on Purpose' Script While Interest Rates Move in the Opposite Direction

Pro-Trump social media users are sharing strikingly similar videos claiming the president is deliberately damaging the economy to push interest rates down, just as economists forecast that the Federal Reserve will raise them again.

A compilation posted by the account Right Wing Cope shows several Trump supporters using similar language to argue that the president is pressuring the Fed into cutting rates and is 'playing chess, not checkers'.

The claims are circulating as a Reuters poll published on Tuesday, 20 October 2026, found that all 100 economists surveyed expect the Fed to raise rates in December. The central bank already raised rates in September.

'Playing Chess, Not Checkers'

The clip, posted by Right Wing Cope on X on Tuesday with the caption 'MAGA just sent out the brand new marching orders', strings together short videos of Trump supporters delivering a similar message. The caption is the account's own interpretation, and the clips do not show that the people featured are connected or following any coordinated instructions.

In one, a woman in glasses sits beneath the caption: 'When you realize Trump is crashing the economy on purpose to force the FEDS to cut interest rates and make the American dream affordable again!' A second line, misspelt in the original, reads: 'REMEBER.. he's playing chess not checkers.'

A man in a baseball cap appears in the next clip under almost the same words, describing Trump acting on purpose to force the Fed to cut interest rates and make 'the American Dream affordable'. His caption ends: 'Remember he is playing chess, not checkers.'

The post had been viewed more than 340,000 times when checked on Wednesday, 21 October. 'The fact that what they're saying is so far from reality and not how any of that works is actually beyond me,' one user replied. Another wrote: 'They can't even deny that's what he's doing anymore.'

The theory is not new. In April 2025, Trump shared a video on Truth Social claiming he was 'crashing the stock market' on purpose so that the Fed would cut rates and the government could refinance its debt cheaply.

That video, which began on TikTok, was reposted with the caption 'Trump is playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers'. Sharing it did not establish that Trump was deliberately engineering a downturn, or that such a strategy would lower borrowing costs.

In practice, the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee sets rates according to its own assessment of the economy and its legal mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. A weaker economy can influence its decisions, but rate cuts are not automatic, and higher inflation can instead prompt increases.

Economists Expect a December Hike

Economists expect rates to head the other way. In a Reuters poll of 100 economists conducted from 16 to 20 October, 94 said they expected the Fed to hold its benchmark rate at 3.75 to 4.00 per cent at its meeting on 27 and 28 October, Reuters reported. All 100 expected a rise at the 8 to 9 December meeting, compared with fewer than half in the previous month's poll. Both are forecasts, not decisions.

Nearly 60 per cent of forecasters see rates peaking at 4.00 to 4.25 per cent, while 38 of 92 expect at least two more increases. That is up from about a fifth in September's survey.

'They'll go 25 in December, but the risk is greater they end up going 50 than they don't go at all,' said Alex Pelle, senior US economist at Mizuho Securities. Michael Gapen, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley, said the risks pointed to a Fed that may need to raise rates more than expected.

The Fed's policy committee raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point on 16 September, and minutes from that meeting showed most officials thought 'another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end', Scotsman Guide reported.

Inflation, Oil and Mortgages

Inflation remains above the Fed's 2 per cent target. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the personal consumption expenditures price index to remain more than one percentage point above target in the coming quarters, and not to return to 2 per cent until at least 2028.

Headline PCE inflation was 3.4 per cent year on year in August, with core inflation at 3 per cent, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis figures cited by Scotsman Guide. Even before the Reuters poll, futures markets were pricing in a December rise: CME FedWatch put the chance of one at 84 per cent on 7 October.

Oil prices are above $100 (£75) a barrel as the war with Iran shows no sign of easing, Reuters reported. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has offered little forward guidance.

The economy has held up. It grew at an annualised 2.2 per cent in the second quarter, according to Reuters, and economists in the poll forecast growth of 3.2 per cent in the third, a figure yet to be confirmed by official data. Abigail Watt, US economist at UBS, said that resilience was driven mainly by upper-income households benefiting from AI-related stock gains.

For the 'American dream' of homeownership, borrowing costs remain high. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.40 per cent on 15 October, according to Freddie Mac data. The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly. They are shaped largely by longer-term Treasury yields, inflation expectations, bond-market conditions and lender spreads.

The Fed's next meeting runs from 27 to 28 October, less than a week before the midterm elections on 3 November.