Putin's Trump-Xi Summit Plan Sparks Alarm as Ukraine Faces Peace Deal on Moscow's Terms

Vladimir Putin has floated a summit with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, raising a deeply unsettling prospect for Kyiv: a peace deal shaped by three powerful leaders, while the Ukrainian president is left outside the room.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the Russian president proposed the meeting as a way to pursue a settlement favourable to Moscow. The suggested format would exclude Volodymyr Zelensky, with the summit potentially taking place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) gathering in Shenzhen, China, on 18 and 19 November.

Trump has not agreed to attend, and the meeting remains hypothetical. But the proposal has already put a question at the heart of the Ukraine war back into focus: can a lasting peace be negotiated if Ukraine is denied a meaningful voice in deciding its own future?

Putin's Proposal Revives Fears of a New Yalta

The publication reported that Putin raised the idea during a telephone conversation with Trump on 9 October. A former Russian intelligence officer briefed on the matter reportedly described Putin's ambitions for the format as akin to a second Yalta summit.

The comparison is loaded with historical significance. At the 1945 Yalta Conference, US President Franklin D. Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin discussed the post-war order in Europe. A modern gathering of Washington, Moscow and Beijing to discuss Ukraine without Kyiv would inevitably invite questions about whether great powers were attempting to decide another country's fate over its head.

The Kremlin has confirmed discussions about a possible meeting, but spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there was no clear understanding of the meeting itself or its agenda. A senior US official told the outlet that Trump had not agreed, although he could be receptive to the idea.

No peace terms have been announced. However, any settlement could involve contentious questions over occupied territory, Ukraine's future security, sanctions and a possible ceasefire. For Kyiv, being absent from the room could make it harder to defend its position on those issues.

Trump's Russian Diesel Deal Adds to the Unease

The summit proposal follows a controversial US-Russia diesel arrangement announced after the 9 October call. Trump said Russia would supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to US and global markets, equivalent to about 2.25 million barrels. His administration temporarily lifted US sanctions on Russian fuel to facilitate the arrangement.

The White House has framed the deal as a way to ease fuel-price pressures and encourage Moscow back towards negotiations. Reuters reported that Trump's envoys told Ukrainian officials the arrangement could help 'soften' Russia's position and restart stalled talks.

Critics, however, warn that renewed Russian fuel revenues could help Moscow while its war against Ukraine continues. A group of US senators from both parties also urged Trump to reverse the deal, arguing that its potential benefit to fuel prices was limited compared with the financial advantage for Russia.

The sequence has fuelled scrutiny of Washington's approach, but public reporting does not establish that the diesel arrangement was exchanged for Putin's summit proposal. What is clear is that the administration is pursuing engagement with Moscow even as questions grow over the cost to Ukraine and its allies.

Why Europe and Taiwan Are Watching

Ukraine is not the only place where the proposed summit could send shockwaves. Reports indicate that the Kremlin sees the format as a way to reinforce Russia's status among the world's major powers, while leaving Europe outside the discussions.

The prospect also resonates in Taiwan, where Beijing claims sovereignty over the self-governing island and has not renounced the use of force. A Trump-Putin-Xi meeting would not determine Taiwan's future, but the image of three major powers discussing Ukraine without its leader could intensify concerns about how smaller countries' interests might fare in high-level power politics.

For European governments, the fear is equally direct: a settlement negotiated over Kyiv's objections could create divisions among Ukraine's allies and leave the continent facing the consequences of a deal it did not shape.

Could Ukraine Be Left With a Deal It Did Not Shape?

Xi would have his own diplomatic calculations, balancing China's relationship with Russia against its economic ties with Europe. Trump, meanwhile, could view direct talks as a route towards fulfilling his promise to end the war.

For Zelensky, the fundamental issue is whether Ukraine would retain control over decisions affecting its territory and security.

The summit is not confirmed, and no peace agreement has emerged. Yet Putin's proposal has raised an explosive question for Kyiv and its allies: if the world's biggest powers negotiate Ukraine's future without Ukraine, whose peace would they actually be securing?