National Book Awards 2025 Finalists Reveal a New Era of American Storytelling — Here's What the Predictions Are Saying

The National Book Awards 2025 finalists are out, and they're rewriting the narrative of American literature. Announced by the National Book Foundation on Tuesday, 7 October, this year's lineup showcases a striking mix of voices and themes across five categories: Fiction, Nonfiction, Poetry, Translated Literature, and Young People's Literature.

Winners will be revealed on 19 November at the 76th National Book Awards Ceremony and Benefit Dinner, set to take place at Cipriani Wall Street in New York City. One of the most anticipated events on the U.S. literary calendar, the ceremony will also be livestreamed, inviting readers around the world to celebrate storytelling in all its forms.

A Record Year for Submissions and Literary Diversity

According to the National Book Foundation, this year's awards drew a record-breaking 1,835 submissions across all categories, reflecting the depth and range of American publishing in 2025. The Fiction category received 434 entries, while Nonfiction led with 652.

Poetry, Translated Literature, and Young People's Literature saw 285, 139, and 325 submissions, respectively.

The finalists were chosen by independent judging panels composed of authors, critics, scholars, and booksellers. Their selections highlight how American storytelling continues to evolve, embracing global influences, multilingual narratives, and bold thematic experimentation.

Fiction and Nonfiction Finalists Define a 'New Era'

The Fiction shortlist is dominated by a mixture of well-established and rising literary voices. Among the five finalists are Rabih Alameddine for The True True Story of Raja the Gullible (and His Mother), Megha Majumdar for A Guardian and a Thief, Karen Russell for The Antidote, Bryan Washington for Palaver, and Ethan Rutherford for North Sun: Or, the Voyage of the Whaleship Esther.

These works, though stylistically distinct, share a preoccupation with identity, belonging, and the search for meaning in times of upheaval.

In Nonfiction, Yiyun Li'sThings in Nature Merely Grow has emerged as a standout, offering a deeply personal reflection on grief and resilience. Other shortlisted writers, including Omar El Akkad, Julia Ioffe, Claudia Rowe, and Jordan Thomas, explore pressing global and social themes such as political conflict, foster care, and climate change.

Critics have noted that these selections capture what many are calling a 'new era of American storytelling' — one shaped by diversity, introspection, and the blending of personal and political narratives.

Poetry, Translation, and Young People's Literature

The Poetry category includes acclaimed writers such as Cathy Linh Che, Tiana Clark, Richard Siken, Patricia Smith, and Gabrielle Calvocoressi, each pushing linguistic and emotional boundaries in their work.

In the Translated Literature category, authors and translators from multiple regions bring voices in Arabic, Danish, Spanish, and Uzbek into English, further broadening the reach of American literary conversation.

For Young People's Literature, finalists Kyle Lukoff, Amber McBride, Daniel Nayeri, Hannah V. Sawyerr, and Ibi Zoboi showcase the vitality of storytelling for younger audiences, tackling themes of identity, resilience, and belonging.

Predictions and Early Favourites

With the announcement of the finalists, speculation has intensified around who will take home the top honours. According to reports, Rabih Alameddine and Yiyun Li are early favourites in Fiction and Nonfiction, respectively.

Meanwhile, Bryan Washington's Palaver and Karen Russell's The Antidote are gaining strong attention from literary circles and online readers.

Commentators note that the unpredictability of this year's lists reflects the richness of contemporary writing. Several reports suggest that the Poetry and Translated Literature categories remain the most difficult to forecast, with no clear frontrunners emerging.