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What's next for Commodity Prices?

We were expecting the parabolic move in commodity prices to be interrupted by a correction at some point. While it could not have been anticipated as the catalyst for a pullback, the catastrophe in Japan two weeks ago prompted a sizeable sell-off in risk assets, including commodities. The question is whether in the aftermath of this event, or other lingering concerns, commodities can restart a substantive move to higher levels.

The opportunity for emerging market stocks is still some ways off

The prospects for emerging markets are very appealing on a secular basis. The performance in the equity markets from countries in Emerging Asia to Latin America has been impressive for the better part of the last decade. A torrid pace of economic activity, growing per capita incomes, improved fiscal conditions, and overall global growth have helped to foster an environment for investments in these markets to flourish.

Is the dollar’s role slipping?

During the height of the financial crisis, the U.S. dollar spiked as investors fled to the quality and safety of what is considered to be the world's reserve currency. Peaking in March 2009, the dollar has had but one strong rally since. That occurred in late spring 2010 as worries that the U.S. might experience a double-dip recession heightened. As equities were sold investors once again plowed into the valued destination of the dollar. In both instances the dollar's store of value be...

WPP profits jump, shares dip

Shares in WPP were down on the FTSE 100 in morning trading after the advertising group reported a rise in revenue and pre-tax profit in the full year ended 31 December 2010.

China Syndrome

The central bank of China raised interest rates again last week and followed that by increasing the reserve requirement for the country's banks this week. This has been a fairly consistent pattern by the People's Bank of China over the last four months. The signs of creeping inflation and speculative activity in the property markets are clearly higher than the authorities' comfort level. Consequently, monetary policy is in the midst of "catching up" to economic activity.

The hibernating global bond bear is awakening

Central banks in the U.K., Europe, Australasia and Latin America, are focused on the ill effects of inflation, which is rising at a rate that threatens to impair economic growth in their respective jurisdictions. This follows a period where these economies were attempting to stoke growth through monetary stimuli that led to lower interest rates and sizeable gains in bond prices. This is now changing.

A warning for emerging market investors

To state that many of the world's fastest growing economies are found in the emerging market countries of Asia and Latin America is hardly a revelation at this juncture. Additionally, it is widely known that the performance of the equity markets throughout these continents has been exceptionally strong for years. In fact, the MSCI Emerging Market index has returned better than 13% (without dividends) on an annualized basis for the last decade, while the S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE indices - proxi...

Is default Portugal’s Manifest Destiny?

The daisy chain of events manifesting from the European fiscal crisis that initially consumed Greece then Ireland in its wake has skipped into Portugal. This is not being greeted by market participants as much of a surprise since this development had been foreshadowed for months. Portuguese bond yields had risen above 7%, roughly 4% higher than the benchmark 10-year German bund. This is the inglorious territory of Greek and Irish bond yields just as they were teetering on fiscal insolvency. ...

A good look at Liu Xiaobo

It's not often that an article in the Guardian interests me, but yesterday between the regular complaints about the cuts and the stories of the plight of downtrodden workers in far away places, there was a real gem of a piece about the Chinese dissident and now Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiaobo.

China post script - An issue of differing perspectives

Maybe David Cameron, Britain's Prime Minister, was considering the fate of Ai Weiwei's Shanghai Studio, when he gave his carefully worded speech on 10 November 2010 in front of a group of Beijing University students. Mr Ai, who designed the 2008 Beijing Olympic Stadium, had made documentaries about Chinese dissidents and human rights issues, which, it would appear, were not to the liking of the authorities. It turns out that his studio in Shanghai has not got proper planning permission a...

Scheduled summits, unscheduled tantrums

The British Prime Minister had a good visit to China but received no praise for his part at the G20 Summit in Seoul, South Korea, immediately after. On his return to the Commons on 15 November 2010, Harriet Harman, standing in for Ed Miliband, hurled the jibe at Mr Cameron: "Britain needed to send a statesman to this summit but all we sent was a spectator."