Trump's Nobel Peace Prize Bid: How a Gaza Deal and Grassroots Push Sparked His Surprise Nomination

President Donald Trump has mounted an unusually public campaign for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize ahead of Friday's announcement, banking on a proposed Gaza peace plan and emotional appeals from Israeli hostage families. Yet experts say his chances remain remote despite headline-grabbing nominations from foreign governments.

The Dual-Track Campaign

Trump's pursuit has two distinct elements. The first is formal: a handful of governments and lawmakers have publicly pledged to nominate him. Representative Claudia Tenney of New York submitted a nomination in December for his role in the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab states in 2020.

However, high-profile endorsements from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in July and Pakistan's government in June came after the 1 February deadline for the 2025 award. They will not count towards this year's prize, according to Al Jazeera.

The second strand is grassroots and emotional. The Hostages and Missing Families Forum, representing relatives of Israelis taken to Gaza during the October 2023 Hamas attacks, publicly urged the Norwegian Nobel Committee on Monday to award Trump the prize. 'President Trump brought us light in our darkest times', the forum wrote, praising his efforts to secure releases and protect lives.

Whilst the letter does not constitute an official nomination, as the forum lacks the qualifications to submit nominees, it adds to the public pressure campaign as ceasefire talks based on Trump's proposal began in Egypt this week.

The Gaza Peace Plan Gambit

Trump's 20-point peace plan for Gaza, unveiled in late September, has become the centrepiece of his Nobel campaign. The proposal requires Hamas to release all hostages, living and dead, and relinquish control of Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, a ceasefire, and Israeli troop withdrawal. Israel has endorsed the framework, as have Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Pakistan, and Indonesia.

On Friday, Hamas signalled willingness to release all hostages if 'field conditions for the exchange are met', representing what some analysts view as a potential breakthrough. The group also said it was prepared to turn over administrative control of Gaza to a Palestinian body of technocrats.

'Like the rest of the world, I'm hoping this news means imminent return of the hostages and action addressing the Gaza humanitarian crisis', Senator Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat from Connecticut, told NBC News.

Why Experts Remain Sceptical

Despite the momentum, Nobel watchers say Trump's prospects remain remote. The Norwegian Nobel Committee typically prioritises the durability of peace, the promotion of international fraternity, and the quiet work of institutions that strengthen those goals.

'The committee rewards sustained, multilateral peace efforts that promote long-term stability', a Nobel historian in Oslo said. Trump's efforts have not yet been proven to be long-lasting, according to Theo Zenou, a historian and research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, speaking to PBS.

Nina Græger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, told ABC News that Trump's chances are 'a long shot'. 'His rhetoric does not point in a peaceful perspective', she said. The committee also won't want to be seen as caving to political pressure, experts warn.

Betting Markets Reflect Doubt

Betting markets underscore the scepticism. Polymarket, a prediction market platform, peaked with Trump at 14.5% odds on August 19, but those odds have since fallen. As of Tuesday, bookmaker Star Sports offered odds of 5/1 (16.7 per cent) on Trump winning, down from 2/1 (33.3 per cent) when the Gaza ceasefire deal was first announced. Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms currently lead at 9/4 (30.8 per cent), with Yulia Navalnaya second at 9/2 (18.2 per cent).

Trump's Repeated Claims

Trump has been vocal about deserving the prize. 'Everyone says that I should get the Nobel Peace Prize', he told United Nations delegates in September. He has claimed to have 'ended seven wars' and suggested he should have received at least two' prizes, noting that former President Barack Obama won the award in 2009, just nine months into his first term.

At a gathering of military leaders at Marine Corps Base Quantico in Virginia last week, Trump said: 'Will you get the Nobel Prize? Absolutely not. They'll give it to some guy who didn't do a damn thing.'

Yet in a September interview with CBS News, Trump appeared to downplay his pursuit. 'I have nothing to say about it. All I can do is put out wars, he said. 'I don't seek attention. I want to save lives'.

The Committee's Careful Deliberations

The Norwegian Nobel Committee received 338 nominations for the 2025 prize, including individuals and organisations. The five-member committee, appointed by Norway's parliament, meets behind closed doors and keeps deliberations secret for 50 years.

The committee was fiercely criticised for awarding Obama the prize in 2009 before he had secured any peace agreements. Many argued he had not been in office long enough to have an impact worthy of the Nobel, a precedent that may make the committee more cautious with Trump.

The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, 10 October 2025, at 5am ET (10am UK time) and awarded on 10 December at a formal ceremony in Oslo.

What's at Stake

Analysts suggest Trump's continued focus on Gaza reflects more than humanitarian concern. 'He sees this crucial moment increasing his chances for winning the Nobel Peace Prize and clearing the way for the massive economic development plan he has in mind for Gaza', David Schenker, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told The Christian Science Monitor.

Beyond the prize itself, Trump's Gaza peace plan is seen as central to further progress on the Abraham Accords, normalising relations between Israel and its Arab neighbours, and the long-sought redeployment of US forces from the region.

Whether Trump's public lobbying campaign will sway the committee remains to be seen. But with Friday's announcement imminent, the world will soon know if the Norwegian Nobel Committee rewards his efforts or upholds its tradition of honouring sustained, multilateral peacemaking.

The committee must decide by 10 October whether any of the high-profile campaigns have translated into an award this year.