Seven in 10 Americans Doubt Trump Will Accept Midterm Results if Republicans Lose, New Poll Finds

Seven in 10 Americans doubt Donald Trump would accept the results of November's midterm elections if Republicans lose, an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll has found, with half of respondents saying they are 'not at all' confident he would accept the outcome.

Only 28 per cent said they were confident Trump would accept a Republican defeat. That included 10 per cent who were 'very' confident and 18 per cent who were 'somewhat' confident. The findings highlight public doubts about the president's response to a potential Republican setback.

The results come as Americans prepare to elect members of Congress in November 2026. Early voting has already begun in Minnesota, where voters started casting ballots on 16 October.

Trump has continued to claim that widespread voter fraud explained Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election. The ABC News report says there is no evidence supporting that claim. Before the 2024 election, Trump said he would accept the result only if it was 'fair and legal'.

The findings also closely resemble earlier polling. A December 2023 Washington Post–University of Maryland survey found that 71 per cent of Americans lacked confidence Trump would accept the 2024 election results if he lost. Only 27 per cent expressed confidence at that time.

The figures come from an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted online from 9 to 13 October 2026. The survey included 2,545 US adults and was administered through Ipsos' KnowledgePanel, a probability-based panel of households. The overall margin of error was plus or minus two percentage points.

Partisan Divide Over Trump's Response To Defeat

The poll reveals a substantial divide between party supporters. Among Democrats, 94 per cent said they lacked confidence Trump would accept the results if Republicans lost. That included 79 per cent who said they were not at all confident.

Independents expressed similar concerns, with 77 per cent lacking confidence in Trump's willingness to accept a Republican defeat. More than half, or 55 per cent, said they had no confidence at all.

Republicans were more optimistic about the president's response. Some 63 per cent said they were confident he would accept the results if his party lost. However, only 25 per cent of Republicans said they were very confident.

Confidence was higher among Republicans who identify with the Make America Great Again movement. Within this group, 74 per cent expressed confidence Trump would accept a loss, including 34 per cent who said they were very confident.

Views on Commitment To Free and Fair Elections

The poll also asked whether Americans believed Trump was committed to free and fair elections. Overall, 61 per cent said he was not committed, up from 56 per cent in 2025. The figures included 92 per cent of Democrats, 69 per cent of independents and 15 per cent of Republicans.

Only 37 per cent of respondents said Trump was committed to free and fair elections. These findings measure public perceptions of the president rather than establishing what he will do after the election.

Respondents were more confident that Democratic Party leaders would accept an electoral defeat. Some 61 per cent expressed confidence that Democratic leaders would accept the results if their party lost, while 38 per cent lacked confidence. Among Republicans, 63 per cent said they were not confident Democratic leaders would accept a loss.

Faith in Election Mechanics Stays Relatively Strong

Despite doubts about Trump's response to a possible Republican defeat, many Americans remain confident in election administration. About six in 10 respondents said they were confident the midterms would be conducted fairly and accurately. The proportion rose to more than two-thirds among registered voters.

Democrats and Republicans expressed broadly similar confidence in election fairness. Some 70 per cent of Democrats and 67 per cent of Republicans said they were confident the elections would be conducted fairly and accurately. Among independents, 51 per cent expressed confidence, while 47 per cent did not.

Confidence in the accurate counting of votes was also relatively high. Overall, 65 per cent of Americans said they were confident ballots would be counted accurately, including 26 per cent who were very confident. Among registered voters, confidence rose to 72 per cent.

For this specific measure, 76 per cent of Democrats and 68 per cent of Republicans expressed confidence in the accuracy of the count. Among independents, 55 per cent said they were confident. The findings suggest that concerns about accepting an election result are distinct from confidence in the counting process itself.

The poll also examined concerns surrounding noncitizen voting in California. The Trump administration has threatened criminal prosecution of election officials who knowingly count ballots cast by noncitizens. The ABC News report notes no evidence that noncitizen voting is widespread or has changed election results.

Expectations for Who Will Control Congress

Americans also expressed differing expectations about control of the House of Representatives. Some 35 per cent expected Democrats to win control in November, compared with 16 per cent who expected Republicans to prevail. Another 28 per cent described the contest as a toss-up, while 21 per cent were unsure.

Separately, Democratic congressional candidates held an eight-percentage-point lead among likely voters, at 52 per cent to 44 per cent, according to the poll. More Democrats than Republicans expected their own party to win control of the House, with figures of 57 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively.

The results do not determine the eventual outcome of the midterms. Instead, they reveal contrasting public attitudes towards election administration, political leadership and the prospect of a change in congressional control.

With voting approaching, the poll's central finding remains clear: many Americans are confident in the mechanics of the electoral process but doubt whether Trump would accept a Republican defeat.