Midterms Predicted To 'Strip MAGA From Power' at Every Level of Government by Ex-GOP Insider

Former Republican strategist Steve Schmidt has predicted that the US midterm elections on 3 November 2026 will deliver a sweeping defeat for Donald Trump's MAGA movement.

In a strongly worded political commentary, Schmidt said Democrats would remove the movement from power across Congress, state governments and local offices.

Writing on Sunday, 11 October, Schmidt said the vote would 'strip MAGA from power in the Congress, statehouses, governors' mansions, town councils and county offices from east to west, north to south across these United States.'

The statement sets out his expectation of a broad political backlash against Trump and his allies. Schmidt's comments were part of a response to David Remnick, editor of The New Yorker, whose column examined the political stakes ahead of the midterms.

Remnick acknowledged signs of a possible Democratic wave while warning against overconfidence in electoral predictions. Schmidt responded to several passages with short, emphatic remarks.

The exchange illustrates a difference in emphasis between the two writers. Remnick recognised the possibility of substantial Democratic gains but highlighted uncertainty, including questions about polling reliability. Schmidt expressed considerably greater confidence in the prospect of a political reversal for Trump's movement.

Schmidt published his response in his Substack newsletter, The Warning, in a post titled 'Fascist Full Stop.' The post, dated 11 October 2026, contains his forecast and his comments on Remnick's column.

Steve Schmidt's Midterms Forecast Challenges Polling Caution

Remnick opened his column by writing that 'signs of a midterm blue wave are everywhere,' while cautioning that journalists should remain sceptical about predictions. Schmidt responded to the first statement with 'DEFINITELY.' He also challenged the interpretation of polling, writing, 'SOME ARE, AND MOST COMMENTATORS CAN'T READ THEM.'

A 'blue wave' generally describes substantial Democratic electoral gains. Such gains could affect control of Congress and influence elections for state and local offices, although the results would depend on individual races. The term does not guarantee that Democrats will win every contest.

Schmidt did not provide a seat-by-seat projection in the passage containing his sweeping prediction. Nor did he identify individual races that would establish the scale of the defeat he anticipated. His remarks should therefore be understood as a political forecast, rather than a quantified prediction demonstrated by the passage itself.

The election will take place on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, according to the US Federal Election Commission. Congressional elections will determine which party controls the House of Representatives and Senate, while separate contests will decide numerous state and local offices. The outcome could therefore have consequences beyond Washington, but the scale of any shift remains uncertain.

Schmidt also rejected Remnick's suggestion that commentators might prefer milder language when describing Trump. Remnick referred to former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley's description of Trump as 'fascist to the core.' Schmidt responded with the words 'NO. NOT FINE,' before describing Trump and the MAGA movement in similarly forceful terms.

Media Criticism and Schmidt's Accusations Against MAGA

Schmidt characterised MAGA as a political movement sustained by 'fanaticism, cynicism, cronyism and corruption.' These are his assessments, not findings established by the quoted passage. His broader argument is that political commentators and media organisations have underestimated the significance of Trump's movement.

He also criticised a past essay in The New Republic that portrayed Trump as part of the mainstream of American political history.

Some of Schmidt's strongest language concerned Kimberly Guilfoyle and Stephen Miller. He invoked both names in a series of accusations about MAGA, but the passage does not establish specific findings of misconduct against either person. Those statements should not be presented as verified facts or as proof of wrongdoing.

Schmidt also blamed sections of the corporate media for helping Trump become a dominant political figure. He argued that journalists should have taken Trump 'literally and seriously,' referring to a formulation previously used by The Atlantic writer Salena Zito. Schmidt's criticism targets media coverage and the political consequences he believes followed.

He singled out CNN commentator Scott Jennings, writing, 'Scott Jennings is a CNN employee. I rest my case.' The remark formed part of his wider criticism of corporate media, although the quoted lines do not explain the full basis for his argument about Jennings. Employment by a news organisation alone does not establish that an individual has acted improperly.

Schmidt's post is notable for the certainty of its electoral forecast and the intensity of its political language. However, it does not offer a detailed breakdown of the races he expects Democrats to win. His prediction must therefore be distinguished from the eventual results.

The 3 November election will provide an early test of Schmidt's assessment. The results will show whether Democrats make the gains he anticipates, but the broader political consequences will depend on individual races and the balance of power that emerges. Until voters cast their ballots and the results are in, his prediction remains a forceful expression of political opinion.