Top Republicans Privately Concede House Is Likely Lost, Blame Trump for Midterm Collapse: Report

Senior Republicans have privately conceded that holding the House of Representatives in November's midterm elections is increasingly unlikely, with some predicting a 10-seat Democratic gain and blaming President Donald Trump's political standing for putting the party's majority at risk, according to a recent Politico report.

Five senior Republican lawmakers, speaking anonymously, described a party shifting its focus from winning the House to limiting its losses and protecting its Senate majority. One Republican told the media outlet the immediate priority was to 'save as many Republican seats as we can,' acknowledging that Trump had become a liability for candidates fighting to retain their seats.

'President Trump has made this election all about himself. Now we have to survive that political storm,' the lawmaker reportedly said.

The private assessment contrasts with the party's public insistence that Republicans can still retain control of Congress, as campaign groups redirect resources and vulnerable House candidates face mounting pressure ahead of the 3rd November elections.

Republicans See a 10-Seat Democratic Gain

One Republican lawmaker reportedly predicted that Democrats could pick up 10 House seats, reflecting growing pessimism within the party about its prospects.

The political stakes are significant because Democrats need only a small net gain to take control of the chamber. A Republican defeat would end the party's House majority and give Democrats greater power to scrutinise the Trump administration and obstruct its legislative agenda.

The shift in expectations is also reflected in Republican campaign spending. The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), the principal super PAC supporting House Republicans, has cancelled advertising for candidates in Nebraska and Iowa, with Senate-focused Republican groups stepping in to support Senate races.

The reallocation includes support for Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts and Ashley Hinson, the Republican representative running for the Senate in Iowa. One Republican lawmaker offered a blunt assessment of the strategic shift: 'These are not the moves of a party that's going to keep the House.'

Trump's Poll Numbers Become a Republican Liability

Republicans have increasingly pointed to Trump's standing with voters as a central problem for candidates down the ballot.

Rep. Don Bacon, the retiring Nebraska Republican who has frequently clashed with the White House, identified the president's approval ratings as a key weakness. 'The biggest problem is the president's polling numbers and unfavorables,' Bacon said.

The concern is that dissatisfaction with Trump could affect Republican candidates even in districts where the president performed well in the 2024 election.

Republican groups have already scaled back expectations in several contested districts, including those represented by Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa and Rep. Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey. Trump carried both districts in 2024, but Republicans are now treating their defence as increasingly difficult. Note that the party has also retreated from an Omaha-area district held by retiring Rep. Don Bacon.

Former Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a Florida Republican, offered an assessment of the private mood inside the party. 'There is no one who has privately stated that they believe Republicans can hold the House — not in recent weeks, anyway,' Curbelo said.

Republican Leaders Still Insist the House Is Winnable

Despite the private pessimism, Republican leaders have continued to reject the suggestion that the House is already lost. House Speaker Mike Johnson dismissed negative polling during a campaign stop in Texas, saying: 'The polling is wrong.'

Elsewhere, White House spokeswoman Liz Huston also insisted that Trump remained 'committed to maintaining Republican majorities in both the House and Senate.'

Meanwhile, Trump has acknowledged that presidents typically lose seats during midterm elections but has maintained that Republican enthusiasm remains strong. 'The level of enthusiasm for the Republican Party is way up,' Trump had reportedly said before departing for Alaska to support Sen. Dan Sullivan.

Whether Republicans can reverse the political momentum before the November elections remains uncertain. However, the reported private conversations suggest that some of the party's most senior figures are preparing for the possibility that the House will slip out of Republican hands.