Election 2015: Labour projected to win four Conservative marginals in latest Lord Ashcroft poll

Labour is set to steal four seats from the Conservatives in constituencies where vote share is on a knife edge, the latest Lord Ashcroft poll projects.

Survey results published by the former Tory peer today predict Labour could claim Harrow East, Hove, Morecambe & Lunesdale and Stockton South at the general election on 7 May.

The poll looked at Conservative held marginals where Labour was the main threat. Of the 10 seats analysed, Labour was on course to win four, the Tories were favourites in five, while the two parties were tied in Pudsey.

South Stockton, where the Tories won in 2010 by a slim 332 votes, less than 1% of the vote, looks set to swing Labour's way, as does Harrow East, where there was a 3,403 Conservative majority at the 2010 election.

David Cameron's party would hold onto Blackpool North & Cleveleys, Gloucester, Kingswood and Loughborough.

The poll, which was conducted between 28 March and 4 April and questioned between 1,000 and 1,002 adults in each constituency, predicted the following vote share:

Blackpool North & Cleveleys

Conservatives 42%
Labour 37%
Liberal Democrat 3%
Ukip 15%
Green 2%
Other 3%

Gloucester

Conservatives 40%
Labour 36%
Liberal Democrat 9%
Ukip 12%
Green 3%
Other 1%

Harrow East

Conservatives 39%
Labour 43%
Liberal Democrat 6%
Ukip 9%
Green 2%
Other 1%

Hove

Conservatives 37%
Labour 43%
Liberal Democrat 5%
Ukip 5%
Green 9%
Other 1%

Kingswood

Conservatives 42%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrat 5%
Ukip 15%
Green 4%
Other 1%

Loughborough

Conservatives 45%
Labour 36%
Liberal Democrat 3%
Ukip 12%
Green 5%
Other 1%

Morecambe & Lunesdale

Conservatives 36%
Labour 42%
Liberal Democrat 5%
Ukip 12%
Green 5%
Other 1%

Pendle

Conservatives 41%
Labour 37%
Liberal Democrat 8%
Ukip 10%
Green 4%
Other 1%

Pudsey

Conservatives 40%
Labour 40%
Liberal Democrat 5%
Ukip 8%
Green 6%
Other 1%

Stockton South

Conservatives 39%
Labour 44%
Liberal Democrat 3%
Ukip 9%
Green 1%
Other 3%