Experts Warn Trump's Venezuela Strategy Could Spark Global Chaos, Raising World War III Risks

US forces have seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, sending shockwaves through the international community.

President Donald Trump ordered the operation and framed it as a fight against narco-terrorism, prompting experts to warn of a slide towards global repression and even World War III. As alliances fracture and warnings mount, the world braces for potential escalation.

The raid targeted key sites in Caracas on Saturday, capturing Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. They were swiftly transported to New York for arraignment on drug trafficking charges. Trump proclaimed the US now oversees Venezuela's transition, rejecting opposition figures like María Corina Machado.

Reviving the Monroe Doctrine with a Modern Edge

Trump has transformed the historic Monroe Doctrine into what he calls the 'Donroe Doctrine,' claiming unchallenged US influence across the Western Hemisphere. Originally a 1823 policy to deter European interference in the Americas, this updated version authorises direct military action to secure interests and remove threats. Trump cited it to justify the operation, warning nations like Cuba, Mexico, and Colombia of similar consequences if they harbour criminals or challenge US dominance.

During a press conference, Trump explained the shift, stating the US has 'superseded' outdated norms. Analysts compare it to Theodore Roosevelt's corollary, which expanded the US rights of intervention in Latin America.

Expert Sounds Alarm on Global Dangers

Professor Anthony Glees, a security specialist at the University of Buckingham, has issued a stark warning: 'We're all in danger.' He describes Trump's actions as a 'recipe for repression everywhere,' dismantling the post-World War II order established by leaders like Franklin D. Roosevelt and Winston Churchill. This framework, Glees notes, has prevented nuclear Armageddon for decades.

Drawing parallels to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's threats to Taiwan, Glees cautions that 'no one in Europe is safe.' He urges the UK to lessen its dependence on US protection, highlighting surging risks of conventional warfare. While immediate World War III seems unlikely, the erosion of norms could invite chaos.

A New York Times opinion piece argues Trump's strategy puts the world on a path to World War III by reviving outdated doctrines. Similarly, Colombia's President Gustavo Petro compared the tactics to Hitler's, issuing a chilling World War III alert and labelling them potential war crimes.

Casualties and Immediate Fallout

The US capture of Maduro came at a steep price, with reports confirming 55 deaths, including 23 Venezuelan security personnel and 32 Cubans, while seven U.S. troops were injured, most of whom are recovering. Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodríguez declared a national mourning period, vowing resistance to foreign control.

Maduro, appearing in court in shackles, pleaded not guilty and claimed he was kidnapped. Trump has threatened further strikes if Venezuela resists, raising the spectre of civil unrest or insurgency among fractured forces.

Russia and China condemned the raid but have not intervened directly. Experts suggest it weakens their influence, potentially emboldening US moves elsewhere. A law professor's analysis warns that Maduro's arrest could encourage Putin in Ukraine and China regarding Taiwan.

Challenging International Norms

The intervention breaches the UN Charter principles against using force on sovereign states. UN officials called for restraint, while Russia decried a return to 'lawlessness.' Allies such as France and the EU expressed dismay, fearing the crumbling of global standards.

Think tanks highlight risks of a 'Pandora's Box,' drawing the US into prolonged commitments similar to Iraq or Afghanistan. Without boots on the ground or solid plans, stability appears remote. The move also exposes the weaknesses of international law when veto-wielding powers act unilaterally.

Oil at the Heart of the Strategy

Venezuela's immense oil reserves drive much of the ambition. Trump announced a deal for 30-50 million barrels supplied to the US at market rates, with revenues funding reconstruction by American companies. He insists the operation costs taxpayers nothing.

Scepticism persists, however. Production has fallen dramatically due to sanctions and mismanagement. Experts doubt quick profits, noting heavy crude's refining challenges and market oversupply. Unlocking potential requires billions of dollars and years of peace, which are unlikely amid the current turmoil.

Risks of Broader Conflict Loom

Glees tempers fears of instant World War III but stresses heightened dangers. Trump's warnings extend to Iran, Russia, and China, amplifying global strains. If resistance grows, air campaigns or wider engagements could follow.

Europe, reliant on American alliances, must now strengthen its own defences. As diplomatic efforts intensify, the crisis tests the limits of power and restraint.

This rapidly evolving situation underscores the fragility of peace in a polarised world. Vigilance and dialogue remain crucial to prevent further descent into conflict.