Left-Wing Independent Connolly Set to Shake Up Irish Politics

Counting in Ireland's presidential election began on Saturday morning, with early tallies pointing towards a decisive victory for left-wing independent candidate Catherine Connolly.

Ballot boxes from 43 constituencies are due to be opened at 9 a.m. across 32 count centres, marking the start of the official tally in Ireland's presidential election.

Officials will begin sorting and verifying first-preference votes, with early tallies expected to offer an indication of the likely outcome by late morning.

While the official declaration is not expected until later in the afternoon, Connolly's commanding lead in pre-election opinion polls has set expectations for a historic result.

The final polls placed Connolly's support near 40% of first-preference votes, roughly double that of her only rival, Fine Gael's Heather Humphreys.

A victory of this scale would not merely elect a new head of state—it would symbolise a profound and definitive leftward turn in Irish public life.

Who Is Catherine Connolly?

Catherine Connolly, 68, is a prominent left-wing independent politician and long-serving parliamentarian representing Galway West. A barrister and former clinical psychologist, she has been a Teachta Dála (MP) since 2016 and served as Leas-Cheann Comhairle, or deputy speaker, in the Dáil Éireann.

Her candidacy has been powered by a rare coalition of the entire fragmented left—drawing the backing of Sinn Féin, Labour, the Social Democrats, People Before Profit, and the Greens.

Connolly's platform centred on social justice, urgent housing reform, and environmental protection.

She is an outspoken critic of the European Union's "militarisation" and a vocal defender of Ireland's neutrality, with a strong pro-Palestine stance and assertion that Irish reunification is a "foregone conclusion" resonating with younger, disillusioned voters.

The Context: Apathy and the Protest Vote

The outcome is a stinging rebuke to the ruling coalition.

Fine Gael's Heather Humphreys faces an uphill battle after a subdued campaign that struggled to energise voters amid growing public disillusionment with the centre-right government.

Adding to the anti-establishment mood, turnout figures are expected to remain close to the 2018 level of 43.8%.

More significantly, election officials also anticipate a notable surge in spoilt ballots.

Following a social-media campaign urging voters to protest the limited choice, analysts predict the spoilt ballot rate could climb from just over one per cent in 2018 to as high as six per cent—a clear sign of mounting public frustration.

Connolly's campaign was also marked by controversy earlier in the week, when a deepfake video purporting to show her announcing her withdrawal circulated widely online.

The AI-generated clip, presented as a fake RTÉ news broadcast, was denounced as disinformation, and her support appeared unaffected.

An Ideological Break with the Past

Although the Irish presidency is largely ceremonial, recent officeholders—from Mary Robinson to Michael D Higgins—have expanded the role into a forum for ethical and social leadership.

Connolly's expected victory would not only continue that tradition but deepen it, giving voice to a generation seeking moral clarity and political independence.

Critics warn that her outspoken style and uncompromising views could complicate Dublin's relationships with European allies.

Supporters counter that a Connolly presidency would restore authenticity to an office long dominated by establishment figures.

Result Expected Later Today

The first official constituency counts are due by late morning, with the national result expected by mid-afternoon once figures are confirmed by the Presidential Returning Officer at Dublin Castle.