Football
Image by Mo Farrelly from Pixabay

When most sports bettors break down an NFL or college football game, the conversation naturally drifts toward the quarterbacks, star receivers, defensive schemes, or rushing attacks. The bulk of betting markets—point spreads, moneylines, player props—are built around these headline-grabbing elements of the game. Yet, hidden in plain sight, lies a segment of football that consistently influences outcomes but rarely gets its due: special teams.

Special teams—covering kickoffs, punts, field goals, and returns—are often dismissed as a supporting act. But for sharp bettors, this is exactly why they present opportunity. On the best NFL Betting Sites, markets linked to kickers or return plays are frequently less exploited, which can mean finding real value where others overlook it. Because oddsmakers know the average bettor prefers to focus on quarterbacks and skill players, lines in the special teams markets can sometimes be softer, offering real chances for profit. From field goal props to anytime touchdown bets on returners, understanding how and when to bet on special teams can turn a forgotten corner of the sport into a profitable niche.

Why Special Teams Are Undervalued

To start, it's important to recognise why sportsbooks don't emphasise special teams betting. For one, special teams plays occur less frequently than offensive or defensive plays. A kicker might only attempt two or three field goals per game, and return touchdowns are relatively rare. This lower frequency reduces the appeal for casual bettors who crave constant action.

However, the very infrequency of special teams events makes them unpredictable and harder for the public to model. A missed extra point, a clutch 55-yard field goal, or a sudden kickoff return touchdown can swing not only the scoreboard but also betting outcomes. Because bookmakers devote less attention to pricing these markets, diligent bettors who study special teams data can often find discrepancies and exploit them.

Field Goal Betting: When Kickers Decide the Spread

One of the most common special teams wagers is on field goals—whether it's total field goals in a game, over/under on longest field goal, or props tied to individual kickers.

Longest Field Goal Props

This market is particularly interesting. Lines are typically set around 47.5 to 49.5 yards, depending on the matchup. Here's where bettors can apply context:

  • Venue matters. Kicking in Denver, with its altitude, makes 55+ yard attempts far more realistic. Indoor stadiums also favour longer kicks because there's no wind factor.
  • Team philosophy. Some coaches, like John Harbaugh in Baltimore or Sean McVay in Los Angeles, are more willing to attempt long field goals if they trust their kicker. Others, preferring analytics-driven fourth-down attempts, reduce the likelihood of long kicks.
  • Kicker ability. It sounds obvious, but knowing who's on the field matters. Justin Tucker, widely considered the best kicker in NFL history, has an outsized influence on longest field goal props.

Total Field Goals Made

Betting on total field goals can also be lucrative, especially in games projected to be defensive battles. If oddsmakers predict a low total score (say 41 or fewer points), it often means offences may stall in the red zone, forcing more field goal attempts. Conversely, high-scoring shootouts may favour extra points over field goals, lowering value on the 'over' side of this prop.

Extra Points: Small Margins, Big Impact

While less glamourous, extra points (PATs) play an underrated role in betting. Since the NFL moved the PAT distance back in 2015, conversion rates have dropped from nearly automatic (99%) to around 94%. That six-point swing has created subtle but meaningful betting angles.

In games with poor weather—heavy winds, rain, or snow—the probability of missed extra points rises. Bettors can take advantage of this by factoring it into live bets, alternative spreads, or exact winning margins. A missed PAT might seem minor, but it can flip an outcome from a push to a win—or vice versa.

Betting on Return Touchdowns: The Jackpot Play

Perhaps the most exciting special teams market is wagering on return touchdowns. Books often list props like "Will there be a kickoff/punt return TD?" with long odds—sometimes as high as +900 or more. These are rare plays, but that doesn't mean they're impossible to predict.

Key Factors for Return TD Bets:

  1. Returner Skill. Players like Devin Hester in his prime, Cordarrelle Patterson, or emerging college stars dramatically increase the likelihood of return scores.
  2. Coverage Units. Poor coverage units, especially those with weak tackling or inconsistent punting, open the door for big plays.
  3. Game Context. Teams trailing late may take more risks on returns, which can lead to both opportunities and mistakes.
  4. Weather Conditions. Wind can produce short punts or chaotic kickoffs, both of which favour return touchdowns.

While bettors shouldn't expect to cash these props weekly, strategically targeting games with elite returners against weak special teams can yield occasional but highly profitable wins.

Hidden Angles: Special Teams and Live Betting

Live betting has added a new dimension to special teams wagering. A blocked punt, a missed field goal, or a long return can radically shift momentum. Sharp bettors who track live odds can anticipate how these sudden swings will impact game totals, spreads, or even player props.

For example, a missed 40-yard field goal in the second quarter not only keeps points off the board but also gives the opponent strong field position. This increases the probability of a quick score, something oddsmakers may take a few seconds to adjust for.

College Football: An Even Bigger Edge?

In college football, special teams can be even more influential. The wider hash marks create steeper kicking angles, leading to more misses. Return touchdowns also occur more frequently, as special teams talent disparities between schools can be stark. A powerhouse program's five-star returner facing an underfunded team's walk-on coverage unit is often a mismatch waiting to be exploited.

For bettors, this means props on missed field goals, return touchdowns, or first-half scoring breakdowns can offer more opportunities in NCAA markets than in the NFL.

Turning the Forgotten into the Profitable

Special teams may be the forgotten market in football betting, but that's precisely why it's worth a closer look. By paying attention to context—venue, weather, coaching philosophy, kicker skill, and return unit matchups—bettors can uncover edges the general public overlooks.

Field goal props, longest kick wagers, return touchdown bets, and even live lines influenced by special teams plays all provide avenues for sharper, more profitable betting. While these markets might not carry the volume of quarterback props or point spreads, they reward the bettor willing to do the extra homework.

In a sport where the margins between winning and losing are razor-thin, sometimes it's the kicker, punter, or return man—not the star quarterback—who decides the outcome. And for bettors, remembering that fact can turn overlooked plays into winning tickets.