What is the main concern of the JPMorgan report?

The report warns about fertiliser shortages and a strengthening super El Niño potentially keeping global food prices elevated into 2027.

Which crops are most exposed to the fertiliser shortage?

Rice, sugar, coffee, and cocoa are the crops most exposed to the fertiliser shortage.

How might US consumers be affected by global food price increases?

US consumers might see price increases in imported goods like coffee, cocoa, and sugar, which could lead to higher grocery bills.

What role does fertiliser play in food production?

Fertiliser is crucial for planting, and shortages can affect crop yields, leading to higher food prices.

JPMorgan Warns Fertiliser Shortages and Super El Niño Threaten Global Food Supply With Higher Inflation by 2027

Inflation Supermarket Groceries — A UN agency has warned that a severe global food price crisis could emerge within six to 12 months if fertiliser flows stay choked Hobi industri/Unsplash

JPMorgan has warned that fertiliser shortages and a strengthening super El Niño could keep global food prices elevated into 2027, pushing coffee, sugar, and cocoa higher and adding to the grocery bills US shoppers already face.

In a report titled 'Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm', a JPMorgan team led by senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi projected that food inflation could climb to a 5% annualised rate in the first half of 2027. That would add 0.6 percentage points to global headline inflation and slow next year's expected price cooldown.

The warning lands as US food prices have stayed relatively calm. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed grocery prices rose 2.7% in the year to July 2026, with overall food up 3%. The bank's concern is what comes next, not what shoppers are paying today.

What the Report Actually Says

Szentivanyi's team found that this year's energy shock could roughly double the inflationary hit of a super El Niño, lifting global food prices by about 1.3 to 1.5 percentage points against a historical average of 0.7. The report traced the pressure to a single weak point, fertiliser, and named rice, sugar, coffee, and cocoa as the crops most exposed.

Fertiliser matters because its timing is unforgiving. Farmers need nitrogen fertiliser at planting, and it cannot be applied once crops are already in the ground. A shortage during one planting window can dent yields months before the effect reaches shop shelves, which is why a supply squeeze now feeds through to prices well into next year.

Why US Kitchens Are Exposed

JPMorgan expects emerging markets in Asia and Latin America to feel the sharpest direct blow, while advanced economies see a smaller El Niño effect. The US catch is different. Americans import most of their coffee, cocoa, and a large share of their sugar, so global price rises flow straight onto domestic shelves.

BLS figures already show sugar and sweets, the category that includes most chocolate, up 6.9% over the year, with coffee prices still elevated after record highs.

A Super El Niño Meets an Energy Shock

The El Niño is no longer a forecast. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) upgraded its alert to an El Niño Advisory in June and now puts the odds of a very strong event this autumn and winter above 90%

The fertiliser strain traces to the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for around a fifth of the world's seaborne fertiliser trade, disrupted since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on 28 February.

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that a severe global food price crisis could emerge within six to 12 months if that route stays blocked, with chief economist Maximo Torero saying the clock is ticking.

China Is Already Moving

One detail in the report reads as a quiet signal. China has been building food and fertiliser reserves for years and released commercial fertiliser stockpiles early this spring as Gulf supplies tightened. Its grain reserve is estimated at around 700 million tonnes, roughly a year's supply for its population.

For US households, the takeaway is simpler. The next price shock may not hit at the pump, as it did this year, but in the coffee aisle a year from now.