Trump Highlights Economic Gains as Data Points to Falling Deficit, Wage Recovery and Manufacturing Growth

US President Donald Trump used a series of social media posts this week to promote what he described as strong early economic gains during his second term, pointing to charts that show progress across the federal deficit, consumer spending, manufacturing output, business investment and real wage growth.

Posting on his Truth Social account on Tuesday evening, Trump shared graphics compiled from the US Treasury, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau.

The visuals compare economic performance across 2024 and the first half of 2025 and show, at face value, improving trends since his return to the White House.

However, economists caution that headline growth masks deepening structural concerns. A new Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) quarterly review warns that the expanded US economy remains vulnerable beneath the surface, shaped by inequality, labour instability and global uncertainty.

Deficit Trends Evidence Reduced Government Borrowing

One chart shared by Trump tracks cumulative monthly federal deficits from February to September, showing a narrower gap in 2025 compared with the same period last year. The White House credits tighter spending discipline and new efficiency measures, suggesting savings amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, equivalent to tens of billions of pounds.

Yet the CFR highlights that America's deficit remains historically large. The expert review notes that the federal shortfall is currently running at 5.9 per cent of GDP, leaving the country increasingly dependent on foreign capital to finance growth.

'Global savers are still called upon to finance U.S. growth, forcing their local investment needs to compete with the relative safety of U.S. markets,' the CFR warned.

Consumer Spending Rises Amid Inflation Squeeze

Trump also shared charts showing inflation-adjusted consumer discretionary spending rising from just under $11 trillion (£8.6 trillion) in early 2023 to roughly $11.85 trillion (£9.3 trillion) by mid-2025. The upward line continues into his second term, suggesting improving purchasing power.

But rising spending does not translate into confidence. CFR research highlights an uneven recovery driven by wealth inequality.

'The U.S. economy's K-shaped nature, where upper-income households thrive while middle and lower tiers struggle, makes American consumption patterns uneven and unpredictable for global manufacturers,' the briefing said.

Inflation remains persistent at 3 per cent, above the Federal Reserve's 2 per cent target.

'Many Americans continue to feel the toll of elevated prices, particularly as families grapple with higher grocery and holiday costs,' CFR analysts noted.

Consumer confidence has fallen to its second-lowest level on record, signalling anxiety despite rising overall expenditure.

Manufacturing Rebound and Capital Investment

Trump's charts showed manufacturing output climbing sharply in 2025 after contractions last year, jumping 3.5 per cent in the first quarter and another 2.4 per cent in the second. The administration credits trade reforms, reshoring incentives and regulatory rollbacks.

Business investment followed suit. Real private non-residential capital spending rose at an annualised rate of 8.4 per cent during the first half of this year compared to 3.7 per cent during 2023–24. Equipment upgrades, technology expansion and factory projects were all highlighted as indicators of growing corporate confidence.

The CFR acknowledges that AI investment has played a major role, stating that 'robust investment in AI and related infrastructure has provided a significant boost' to GDP growth, with the US economy currently tracking towards 2 per cent annual expansion based on second-quarter data and IMF forecasts.

However, the briefing also warns that concerns are growing over an AI-led asset bubble, with comparisons drawn to the dotcom crash of the early 2000s.

Job Growth Masks Rising Unemployment

Labour data released late due to the government shutdown revealed that the economy added 119,000 jobs in September, but the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4 per cent, the highest in four years.

CFR analysts attributed part of the softening job performance to widespread deportations and tighter immigration policies that have reduced the labour supply, alongside AI-driven layoffs announced by companies including Amazon, Target and UPS.

'Whether AI will trigger broader workforce displacement remains an open question in the months ahead,' the briefing said.

Real Wages Recovering But Not Fully Restored

Trump's data suggests that following real wage losses of approximately $2,909 (£2,285) per worker under the Biden administration, incomes are rebounding this year at an annualised pace of $1,151 (£900). About 40 per cent of lost purchasing power has reportedly been recovered.

Supporters say this reflects falling inflation and employment gains, but analysts argue that the benefits remain unevenly distributed.

Economic Gains Tempered by Global Uncertainty

The CFR outlines growing instability driven by geopolitical pressures and unclear trade policy.

'Businesses face high uncertainty due to a volatile tariff agenda, and U.S. partners increasingly view Washington as a less reliable business partner,' the briefing said, while warning that upcoming renegotiations of the USMCA trade pact could have major economic consequences.

Interest rates remain elevated despite a recent quarter-point cut to 3.75–4 per cent, and the Federal Reserve faces a difficult balancing act as cooling labour markets conflict with stubborn inflation.

Outlook Remains Uncertain

Trump continues to promote early indicators as proof his economic approach is working. Yet the CFR's assessment concludes that growth, though real, remains fragile.

'Several data points suggest a precarious economic situation could soon emerge,' the experts cautioned.

As optimism in business investment and manufacturing collides with consumer anxiety, labour disruption and policy uncertainty, the durability of Trump's claimed economic recovery is set to remain under close scrutiny through 2026.