Insider Trading? Nine Anonymous Polymarket Accounts Won 98% of Their Iran War Bets, Netted $2.4 Million

The explosive growth of prediction markets was once hailed as a breakthrough in forecasting global events. Supporters argued that real-money betting markets could predict political upheaval, elections and geopolitical crises faster than traditional analysts. Critics, however, warned of a darker possibility: what happens when those with access to sensitive information begin placing bets before the world knows what is coming?

That debate has returned sharply into focus after blockchain investigators uncovered a network of anonymous accounts that allegedly made millions from accurately predicting major developments in the Iran conflict.

According to investigations published by CBS News and crypto publication Decrypt, nine linked accounts on Polymarket earned more than $2.4 million by placing highly successful wagers on US military actions tied to Iran. The accounts reportedly won 98% of their bets across more than 80 trades.

A Near-Perfect Betting Record

The investigation was led by blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps, whose researchers identified suspicious trading patterns tied to the anonymous wallets. According to Bubblemaps, the accounts were created only days before America's first strikes on Iran in late February. From that point onwards, the wallets placed remarkably accurate bets on several major geopolitical developments.

The traders correctly predicted the timing of US military strikes, the reported removal of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the announcement of a temporary ceasefire linked to the conflict. The accounts rarely lost money. Investigators noted that when losses did occur, they were unusually small, sometimes only a few hundred dollars.

Nicolas Vaiman, the company's co-founder and chief executive, told CBS News the odds of such accuracy occurring naturally appeared extremely low.

'This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far,' Vaiman said. 'Luck alone cannot explain those numbers.'

Vaiman also told Decrypt there was no conclusive evidence linking the traders to the United States, despite one account reportedly using the name 'whopperlover'.

Suspicions of Insider Trading

The revelations arrive just weeks after federal prosecutors charged US Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke with allegedly using classified information to place profitable bets on another international conflict. According to prosecutors, used advance knowledge of a US operation targeting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to make more than $400,000 through Polymarket wagers. He has pleaded not guilty to the charges.

The case intensified concerns that prediction markets could become vulnerable to insider trading involving military operations and state intelligence. Former Commodity Futures Trading Commission lawyer Rob Schwartz told CBS News that prediction markets may represent 'a new kind of insider trading.'

Military operations often involve planners, intelligence analysts, contractors, and support personnel. Bubblemaps investigator 'Deebs', a former US military officer whose identity remains concealed for security reasons, said sensitive information can spread across wide operational networks before public announcements are made. 'That means that there are, consequently, a lot of potential insiders,' Deebs told CBS News.

Transparency Meets Anonymity

Prediction markets operate through blockchain technology, which creates a strange contradiction.

All trades remain publicly visible and traceable on-chain. Analysts can track wallet activity, transaction histories, and betting behaviour in real time. Yet the identities behind those wallets frequently remain anonymous. That balance between transparency and secrecy has become central to the debate surrounding platforms such as Polymarket.

In a statement shared with CBS News, Polymarket said it had developed extensive market surveillance systems designed to detect suspicious activity.

The company stated: 'When our systems identify suspicious activity, we act — including through referrals to law enforcement and cooperation with investigations.'

Polymarket also cited the Van Dyke prosecution as evidence that its compliance systems were functioning effectively. Investigators from Bubblemaps said profits from the Iran-related wagers were eventually moved through several cryptocurrency exchanges, including Bybit, Binance, and HTX.

Growing National Security Concerns

The controversy now extends beyond financial regulation. Investigators and legal observers fear unusual betting activity tied to military operations could create broader national security risks. Analysts monitoring prediction markets may detect patterns suggesting military action before governments formally announce them.

Bubblemaps investigator Deebs warned that hostile states or foreign intelligence agencies could potentially monitor these markets for strategic signals. 'Other adversaries may be using this information in order to plan their own strategy,' he told CBS News.

CBS News also reported that federal investigators are examining suspicious oil futures trades placed shortly before former President Donald Trump announced progress in negotiations linked to the Iran conflict. No criminal charges have been filed in relation to those trades.

For supporters of prediction markets, insider information may improve forecasting accuracy. Critics argue it creates a system where those closest to military and political power gain unfair advantages over ordinary participants. As regulators continue examining the sector, the controversy surrounding Polymarket may become a defining test of whether prediction markets can operate fairly while handling bets tied to war, diplomacy, and global security.