A Donald Trump presidential victory is in top 10 global risks on par with jihadi terrorism
Donald Trump becoming US president would be as dangerous for the world as jihadi terrorism destabilising the economy, and more dangerous than Brexit, according to a global forecast.
A Trump win in the 2016 presidential election, to be held on 8 November, has been rated 12 out of 25 by The Economist Intelligence Unit, classed as a moderate probability, high impact occurrence that places sixth in the top 10 risks facing the world.
The unit rated 'China experiencing a hard landing' at 20 risk point (number one in the top 10 risks) and 'Russia's interventions in Ukraine and Syria preceding a new cold war' at 16 points.
The report on a Trump win said: "In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war – and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016.
"His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond."
The top 10 list of global risks currently facing the world
- China experiences a hard landing
- Russia's interventions in Ukraine and Syria precede a new "cold war"
- Currency volatility culminates in an emerging markets corporate debt crisis
- Beset by external and internal pressures, the EU begins to fracture
- "Grexit" is followed by a euro zone break-up
- Donald Trump wins the US presidential election
- The rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilises the global economy
- The UK votes to leave the EU
- Chinese expansionism prompts a clash of arms in the South China Sea
- A collapse in investment in the oil sector prompts a future oil price shock
Although the risk service expects Trump to lose to Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton, should they both win their respective party's nominations, it warned that a Trump victory would cause instability due to the GOP candidate's lack of policy direction, with the themes in his policies potentially causing instability.
It explained: "First, he has been exceptionally hostile towards free trade, including notably NAFTA, and has repeatedly labelled China as a 'currency manipulator'. He has also taken an exceptionally right-wing stance on the Middle East and jihadi terrorism, including, among other things, advocating the killing of families of terrorists and launching a land incursion into Syria to wipe out Isis (and acquire its oil)."
Trump is currently frontrunner in the Republican nomination, but does not poll as well when pitted against Clinton who, as the more experienced and moderate politician, is expected to beat Trump should the two go head-to-head for the presidency.
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