The Tory party should be quietly celebrating. With just 18 months to the start of the official election campaign the economy is just about where they wanted it to be, recovery seems embedded, growth figures are being revised upward, private sector job creation is increasing and the chancellor has more money coming in than planned.

Yet, despite all the good news, the Conservative half of the coalition government seem to be suffering from a form of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD).

It is hard to find any Tory or, perhaps worse, any of the usual Conservative cheerleaders saying they believe David Cameron is on course to succeed where he failed last time and win an outright majority in 2015.

None of them really believe the polls suggesting Labour is on course for a workable majority, but MPs are clearly picking up on a mood amongst their constituents that is depressing them.

There are plenty of factors at work. Ed Miliband has proved far more formidable a political opponent than they expected, Cameron has failed to throw off the "out of touch toff" tag, the Downing Street spin machine remains all over the place (see the mishandling of the energy bills announcement for example), there has been a willingness by the leadership to follow headlines rather than think strategically and there is the old bug-bear of the unreformed constituency boundaries which give Labour a built-in poll advantage.

Then, of course, there is the coalition, which Cameron quite likes when compared to the alternative of trying to hold together a minority Tory government.

But it has finally dawned on many Tories that, as the two parties attempt to distance themselves ahead of the election campaign, Nick Clegg and his team can be quite effective in attempts to blame them for all the "nasty" things that have happened in government while taking credit for all the good stuff.

And just picture the election campaign when the Liberal Democrats alone will be able to say they have seen up close, around the cabinet table, how the Tories would really want to govern if they won outright, and it isn't pretty.

How much of this is troubling voters is an open question. But equally the positive side of the equation for Cameron and his team may also prove less of a compelling narrative than they had hoped in 2010.

That side of the equation includes all those good economic numbers, a relatively united party, a belief that, despite his effective politicking, Miliband still doesn't look prime ministerial, and the simple fact that things are going according to the timetable.

Elections guru Lynton Crosby has started the process of shutting down any positives for Labour, such as energy prices and payday loans. That might cause short term embarrassment for Cameron but, they believe, is a price worth paying in the long term.

And it cannot be stressed too much, the economy is on the mend. Things really should start getting better.

But still the gloom persists and all Tory eyes are now on George Osborne and his autumn statement in the belief he will be able to lift morale by moving the debate back onto the recovery and the need to stick with the responsible Tories rather than risking it with profligate Labour who would pitch the country back into crisis.

Whatever Osborne does, however, it will need to address the central problem that the Tories appear to have missed and that all politicians are still struggling to accept - voters don't care and don't believe a word of it any more.

They don't care about the figures, they don't believe promises it will all be alright on the night or that a little bit more austerity will see them feeling much better off in the long term. They don't even care about promises to freeze energy bills which, polls show, they don't think is deliverable.

It is partly born out of the now deep-seated cynicism about politicians and politics in general, something sharply identified by Russell Brand recently, but also out of experience. The only thing they really trust and care about is their own subjective experience.

They need to be in work, be able to pay the bills, feel secure in their own homes, have their own home in the first place, and have a little bit saved up for the next, inevitable rainy day. No power point presentation showing them that is all on course, eventually, will do the trick.

It may always have been the case, but the anti-politics, we-don't-care and we-don't-believe-them attitude is far more embedded, probably than ever before. And it is that factor that should be spooking all politicians, not just the SAD Tories.