England and Wales Release Around 700 Prisoners Early as Commissioner Warns of 'Genuinely Terrifying' Risks

Prisons across England and Wales began early releases on Thursday, with 700 prisoners due to leave in the first wave as victims questioned whether monitoring would protect them.

The scheme aims to prevent prisons reaching capacity. London Victims' Commissioner Andrea Simon told BBC Radio 4's Today that some imminent releases remained 'a genuinely terrifying prospect for their victims'.

Which Prisoners Qualify

Ministry of Justice figures showed 87,499 people in custody on Monday, putting prisons at 98.2% capacity. The scheme is expected to cover 4,500 prisoners across 10 waves, with the final releases scheduled for June 2027.

Prisoners in the first group were serving sentences of up to 19 months. Eligible offenders serving fixed terms of more than 12 years are due to leave in later waves.

Under the Sentencing Act, prisoners previously required to serve 40% or 50% of their sentences in custody can leave after a third. Those previously serving two thirds can leave after half.

All forms of manslaughter, grooming offences and causing or allowing the death of a child are excluded. The scheme also excludes indeterminate sentences, which require a Parole Board to approve release.

The number eligible was reduced from around 6,000 after a review removed additional offences. An earlier Conservative programme released more than 10,000 prisoners between October 2023 and September 2024.

Victims Await Prisoners' Release

Kirsty Pellant is among those awaiting news. A man convicted of offences against her, including stalking, received a five-year sentence in January 2025 after she discovered her photograph had been used to create a false online identity portraying her as a sex worker.

She was assured he would not leave in the first wave but had no release date.

The uncertainty 'leaves us in such a dangerous position as victims because we need to be prepared, we need to know what we're dealing with,' she told Today.

Simon questioned tagging's ability to prevent harm. The equipment 'will tell you where someone is but it can't stop them from doing something they shouldn't be doing,' she said.

Domestic abuse charity Refuge said licence conditions were frequently breached by perpetrators. Women's Aid chief executive Farah Nazeer warned that the scheme could further weaken victims' already low trust in the criminal justice system.

Probation Prepares for Early Releases

The government says released prisoners will face strict monitoring, including wider electronic tagging. They can be recalled immediately for breaching licence conditions, such as contacting victims, committing another crime or living at an unapproved address.

New restriction zones will allow probation staff to limit offenders' movements to a small geographical area.

Treasury minister James Murray said ministers had inherited a prison system nearing capacity and faced difficult choices. 'I can't guarantee exactly what will happen,' he told BBC Breakfast.

Former Wandsworth inmate Michael Bogle supported the scheme, saying 'Tagging is better than prison.' Others described concerns about the support awaiting them outside.

Chief Inspector of Probation Martin Jones warned this week that frontline practice supporting electronic monitoring had 'not kept pace' with its expansion and risked creating 'a false sense of assurance' unless failings were addressed.

Probation union Napo said the service was 'significantly under-staffed'. 'You cannot solve the prisons crisis unless probation is fully functioning and provides a real alternative to custody.'