Is Mali the Next Afghanistan? Fuel Shortages and School Closures Trigger Panic as Islamic Militants Tighten Grip

The Malian government has ordered the closure of all schools and universities across the country, citing a severe fuel shortage triggered by a blockade enforced by Islamist militants.

The decision, announced on state television by Education Minister Amadou Sy Savane, has plunged the nation into further uncertainty as fears mount over the growing influence of jihadist groups.

'Classes were suspended for two weeks due to disruptions in fuel supplies that are affecting the movement of school staff,' Savane said, acknowledging the logistical paralysis gripping the education sector.

Militants Block Fuel Imports, Strangling the Economy

The crisis stems from a blockade imposed by the al-Qaeda-affiliated group Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has banned fuel imports from neighbouring countries. Hundreds of fuel trucks remain stranded at Mali's borders, leaving petrol stations in the capital Bamako overwhelmed by long queues and empty tanks.

The blockade has not only paralysed transport and education but also threatens to deepen Mali's economic woes. As a landlocked country heavily reliant on cross-border trade, Mali is particularly vulnerable to such disruptions. The fuel scarcity has sparked panic buying and raised concerns about food supply chains, healthcare access, and basic services.

A Worsening Security Landscape

Mali's security situation has deteriorated sharply since the military junta seized power in 2020. The country, along with neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger, has become a hotbed for jihadist activity, with armed groups linked to both al-Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State exploiting political instability and porous borders.

The latest developments have drawn comparisons to Afghanistan, where the Taliban's resurgence followed years of insurgency and foreign troop withdrawal. Analysts warn that Mali could be on a similar trajectory, with jihadist groups consolidating territorial control and undermining state authority.

Junta's Grip Faces Growing Pressure

The junta, led by Colonel Assimi Goïta, has struggled to contain the insurgency despite severing ties with France and turning to Russia for military support. The government's reliance on Wagner Group mercenaries has drawn international criticism and failed to stem the tide of violence in rural areas.

With schools closed and fuel supplies dwindling, public frustration is mounting. Malians are increasingly caught between escalating militant violence and a fragile state response. According to Human Rights Watch, both jihadist groups and government forces have committed abuses, deepening public mistrust and insecurity.

Regional Fallout and International Concern

The crisis in Mali has implications far beyond its borders. The Central Sahel region, which encompasses Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, is now considered one of the world's most volatile regions. The United Nations has repeatedly warned of a humanitarian catastrophe if the security situation continues to deteriorate.

Neighbouring governments are also on edge, fearing spillover violence and refugee flows. ECOWAS, the West African regional bloc, has urged Mali's junta to restore civilian rule and engage in counterterrorism cooperation, but progress remains elusive.

Meanwhile, Western powers are reevaluating their presence and strategy in the Sahel region. France formally ended its military mission in Mali in 2022 and initially redirected some operations and partnerships toward Niger before relations deteriorated following Niger's 2023 coup. The United States has also voiced concern over growing Russian influence, particularly through Wagner-linked forces, and the weakening of democratic governance across the region.

A Nation at a Crossroads

As Mali grapples with fuel shortages, school closures, and militant encroachment, the question looms: Is it becoming the next Afghanistan?

While the contexts differ, the parallels are striking—a fragile state, rising extremism, and a population caught in the crossfire. Without decisive action and international support, Mali risks sliding further into chaos.

The coming weeks will be critical. If the fuel blockade persists and schools remain shut, the social fabric could unravel, giving militants even greater leverage. For now, Mali stands at a perilous crossroads, and the world is watching.