Oil Prices Surge Despite Trump's Proposal to Rename Hormuz Strait as Trump Strait and Claiming It Is Under US Control

US oil prices rose 1.53% to $92.54 per barrel during Thursday premarket hours after US President Donald Trump claimed in a Wednesday Truth Social post that the Strait of Hormuz is now under 'USA control' and proposed renaming the critical waterway to 'Trump Strait'.

In a separate social media post, Trump denied reports that he was forcing Iran to the bargaining table, and that he couldn't care less if they sign an agreement. He also reiterated his claim that the US has achieved 'almost total control' of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Iran is on the verge of economic collapse.

In August, Trump had posted a map labelling the Hormuz Strait as new US territory, which Iran officials had described as 'delusion'.

The Middle East conflict took a more dangerous turn in the past two days as Iran and the US exchanged fresh attacks, reportedly causing considerable infrastructure damage on both sides.

Iran said it retaliated with missile and drone attacks targeting US bases across the Middle East on Wednesday, including bases in Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and even Iraq's Kurdistan sector. Although Iranian military officials said the attacks targeted US forces and military infrastructure, some claims were not independently verified.

Iran's retaliatory attacks came after the US Central Command on Tuesday said it targeted 'air defence sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites' associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Trump's warning of 'much harder and higher' attacks if Tehran continued to retaliate.

Ship Tracking Data Conflicts With White House Stance Over Hormuz Control

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed in an interview with CNBC that over 17 million barrels of oil transited through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, a day before the US-Iran war escalated.

However, ship-tracking services provider Kpler posted on X that 'traffic declined sharply' on Monday and that it recorded only five commodity-vessel crossings through the waterway, a 50% decline from a day earlier. Kpler also claimed that four vessels entered the Middle East Gulf and one exited, using Iranian, Omani, and negotiated routes.

'Bab el Mandeb activity was comparatively stable, with 35 confirmed crossings, up 2.9% day on day. Of these, 19 entered the Red Sea and 16 exited. No dark transits were recorded, while the International Maritime Organization verified no additional attacks,' according to Kpler.

However, Wright has defended the US government's higher estimate, arguing that commercial tracking services can 'undercount the number of ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz' as many ships are being assisted by the US Navy each night with their transponder disabled.

He had also mentioned in an earlier X post that the US Department of Energy 'maintains the best available data related to oil' leaving the Arabian gulf.

However, note that data platforms like Kpler use satellite imagery and other sophisticated tools to gauge traffic in the waterway that is nearly 21 miles wide at its narrowest point.

Data from IMF's Portwatch, developed in collaboration with Oxford University, estimated fewer than five oil tanker crossings per day for weeks, while overall vessel crossings had remained in the single digits, far below the pre-conflict level of around 120 vessels per day.

Elsewhere, maritime crude oil tracker TankerTrackers.com estimated in a Wednesday X post that an average of 4.9 million barrels of oil have passed through the strait daily since the ceasefire broke down in mid-July.

The diverging data and statements could intensify scrutiny of the White House's claims about the effectiveness of its efforts to keep the waterway open.

For oil markets, the uncertainty over actual tanker movements and the security of the shipping corridor is likely to contribute to continued volatility in crude prices in the near term.