Bill Gates Warned of the Next Pandemic, Now He Fears AI Could 'Destroy Jobs Forever' and Replace Relationships

Bill Gates, who in 2015 warned the world was unprepared for a pandemic years before COVID-19 hit, is now warning that artificial intelligence could make 'many jobs disappear forever', empower people to cause greater harm and even 'replace human relationships'.

In a nearly 6,000-word essay published on Wednesday, the Microsoft co-founder says governments lack a plan for the 'social, political, and economic upheaval' he believes AI could bring and calls for new rules, institutions and taxes on AI and robots.

Gates Warned About Pandemics Before COVID

In a 2015 TED Talk, Gates warned that the world was more prepared for a war than an infectious disease outbreak. He called for greater investment in disease surveillance, vaccines and emergency response systems.

COVID-19 emerged several years later and became a global health and economic crisis. Gates has since argued that better preparation could have reduced the damage caused by the pandemic.

His latest essay does not predict another pandemic. Instead, Gates argues that governments are again facing a rapidly developing technology without adequate systems to manage its consequences.

Gates Says Some Jobs Could Disappear Forever

Gates expects AI to affect jobs involving tasks that software can perform more efficiently. He points to customer service, sales, software development, paralegal work, data analysis and some healthcare tasks.

He also warns that AI could eventually remove the need for people to check its work. Gates says that once systems become 'nearly error-free', companies may no longer need human oversight.

Gates cites Stanford research showing that employment among younger workers in occupations exposed to generative AI fell after the technology became widely available.

He says the effects could spread as AI systems become more capable. 'If fewer people are working, or if many people are working fewer hours,' Gates asks in the essay, 'how does an economy built around employment function?'

AI Could Empower People To Do More Harm

Gates also warns that increasingly capable AI could give individuals new ways to cause harm. He cites fraud, cyberattacks, deepfakes and disinformation, while also raising concerns about biological threats and autonomous weapons.

AI could lower the technical barriers to some dangerous activities, Gates says. People with less specialist knowledge could potentially gain access to capabilities that previously required greater expertise.

He argues that governments will need systems capable of monitoring those risks as AI advances. He also calls for international cooperation on AI safety.

AI Companions Could Replace Human Relationships

Gates' concerns extend beyond employment and security. He warns that increasingly capable AI companions could become substitutes for human relationships, particularly for children and people who are socially isolated.

He cites research from Stanford and Carnegie Mellon involving more than 1,100 AI-companion users. The study found that people with smaller social networks were more likely to use AI companions for companionship, while heavier and more emotionally involved use was associated with negative outcomes.

Gates also identifies potential benefits in mental healthcare. He says AI could help identify signs of distress and offer coping strategies while human professionals remain involved.

He points to China as an example of a government imposing restrictions on AI companions for minors. Chinese rules target services designed to encourage emotional dependence and restrict virtual romantic or familial relationships for children.

Gates Wants Governments To Build New AI Rules

Gates says governments need new national and international institutions to manage AI risks. He compares the framework he has in mind with international systems developed around nuclear weapons, aviation and ozone protection.

He also argues that the United States and China will need to cooperate despite their wider geopolitical rivalry. Gates has separately said he wants to discuss AI safeguards with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Another proposal is 'Human Reserved' work, under which certain jobs would remain performed by people even when AI or robots could do them. Gates points to caregiving and some healthcare and education roles as possible examples.

Gates Proposes Taxing AI and Robots

Gates also proposes taxes on AI tokens and robots. He argues that current tax systems place a heavier burden on human labour than investment in machines, creating an incentive for companies to automate.

Revenue from such taxes could fund worker retraining and social programmes, he says. Gates acknowledges that an AI or robot tax could be economically inefficient and does not specify a tax rate.

He also argues that AI companies should not be left to regulate the technology themselves. The Gates Foundation works with major AI companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and Microsoft, on applications in healthcare, agriculture and education.

Gates does not call for stopping AI development. Instead, he argues that governments should establish safeguards and prepare workers and institutions before the technology's effects become more difficult to manage.