NATO on High Alert as Danish Intel Claims Russia Could Hit Neighbouring Nations 'Soon'

A limited Russian strike against a NATO member could threaten to draw the military alliance into a direct confrontation with Moscow, as a Danish intelligence assessment raises concerns about the possibility of an attack that could divert Western resources from supporting Ukraine.

The warning centres on the risk that Russia could target a neighbouring NATO country while attempting to avoid a wider war. Such an operation would test the alliance's response and raise questions about whether Moscow believes it can use limited military force without triggering a collective military response.

The assessment comes amid continuing tensions between Russia and NATO over the war in Ukraine. However, a warning about a possible attack does not establish that Moscow has approved an operation or that an assault is imminent.

Danish Intelligence Warns of Limited Russian Strike Within Months

The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) issued its latest threat assessment on Thursday, 24 September, warning that Russia could launch a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering its territory.

Intelligence chief Thomas Ahrenkiel described the risk as low but increasing, while the agency identified the coming months as a possible timeframe and did not name a specific country as an intended target.

According to the assessment, Moscow could launch isolated missile or drone strikes against infrastructure used to support Ukraine. Another possibility involves sending a small number of soldiers, potentially without identifying insignia, into a neighbouring NATO country.

The agency suggested that such actions could divert European military resources away from Ukraine while testing whether NATO members could agree on a collective response.

The Danish assessment also warned that Russia could intensify its campaign of cyberattacks, sabotage and other disruptive operations against Western countries.

NATO Steps up Intelligence Sharing as Russian Threat Grows

NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, US Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, confirmed that the alliance was increasing intelligence sharing in response to suspected Russian sabotage and other security incidents.

Speaking to Reuters on Thursday, Grynkewich described recent developments as 'concerning', while urging NATO members to remain calm and confident in their ability to respond.

His comments followed an attempted drone attack at Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport, which German authorities have attributed to Russia, and an incident involving a Russian warship firing flares towards a Danish military helicopter.

The Danish assessment also warned that Moscow could intensify its campaign of cyberattacks, sabotage and other disruptive operations against Western countries.

Potential targets include defence manufacturers, transport networks carrying military equipment and critical infrastructure supporting Ukraine. Such operations could interrupt military supplies without requiring Russia to launch a conventional invasion of NATO territory.

Russian Warship Incident Adds To Baltic Security Concerns

The intelligence warning follows a confrontation on 14 September, when a Russian frigate fired flares towards a Danish military helicopter near Gedser. The helicopter had approached the vessel to photograph it, while Danish authorities subsequently summoned the Russian ambassador over the incident.

Moscow disputed Denmark's account of the confrontation, accusing Danish forces of conducting dangerous manoeuvres near the warship.

Denmark responded by accelerating a military assistance package for Ukraine worth approximately 1.8 billion Danish kroner, or about £210 million, primarily intended to strengthen Ukrainian air defences.

The episode comes amid heightened security concerns in the Baltic region, where Russian and NATO forces operate in close proximity.

Could a Russian Attack Trigger NATO's Article 5?

A deliberate Russian strike against a NATO member could raise questions about Article 5, the alliance's collective defence provision. Under the treaty, an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all, but Article 5 does not automatically require every member to use military force.

Each country determines what assistance it considers necessary, potentially including military force. The Danish assessment suggests Moscow could seek to exploit uncertainty over how NATO would respond to an isolated strike or limited incursion.

Nevertheless, Danish intelligence stressed that a full-scale Russian invasion of a NATO country remains highly unlikely. The agency reported no indications that Moscow was preparing such an invasion and said a build-up of the forces required would take several months and would be difficult to conceal.

Russia has repeatedly denied planning a confrontation with NATO or involvement in sabotage operations against alliance members.

The distinction remains central to the latest warning: Danish intelligence anticipates an escalation in Russian hybrid operations and identifies a growing risk of limited military action, but has not established that an attack on NATO is imminent.