Labour's Sadiq Khan is set to succeed Boris Johnson and become the first Muslim Mayor of London, according to the final opinion poll in the City Hall contest. The YouGov survey for The Evening Standard, of more than 1,500 people in the capital between 2 and 4 May, gave the Tooting MP an 11- point leader over his Conservative rival Zac Goldsmith (43% versus 32%) in the first round of voting.
The poll also gave Khan a 14-point lead in the second round of voting, with the Labour hopeful on 57% and Goldsmith on 43%. The figures show Khan's lead dropped from 16 points on first preference and 20 points in the second from when YouGov last conducted a Mayor of London survey in April.
Ukip's Peter Whittle and Green candidate Sian Berry are tied at 7% in the first round of voting, with Liberal Democrat hopeful Caroline Pidgeon on 6%, Women's Equality Party candidate Sophie Walker on 2% and Respect leader George Galloway on 1%.
Anthony Wells, director of political and social research for YouGov, told IBTimes UK that he did not expect voter turnout to make a dramatic difference to the result.
"Turnout might make a difference at the margins, it might change by two or three points, but it's not going to change by 14 points."
Wells also revealed that his research suggested Londoners were sticking with party allegiances at the ballot box. He added: "It's not really an issues election. If you look at the previous two mayoral elections, people have voted outside of their normal party alignments. The reason why Boris won is because he appealed to lots of Labour and Liberal Democrat voters.
"If you look at the figures here, people who normally vote Labour are voting for Sadiq, and people who normally vote Conservative are voting for Zac. This election is just people voting with their normal party allegiances. It's a Labour city that is voting for a Labour mayor."
The poll results come as some people in the north London borough of Barnet have experienced difficulty in voting, with some voters being turned away. Hayden Cohen, 29, told IBTimes UK that he saw around 10 people being turned away from one polling place.
The exams officer, who went to cast his vote in the Mayor of London and Greater London Assembly elections at 7.10am BST, was also not on the electoral list." People have died for my democratic vote," he said. "The Mayor of London and the London Assembly make an impact on my daily life and I can't have a say on that."
Barnet Council admitted it had made errors with its electoral register lists, but the local authority has now resolved the issue.
"All the updated electoral registers are now in place and people can vote as normal," a spokesperson said. "We are advising people who were unable to vote this morning to return before the polling stations close if at all possible. We apologise for the problems we have experienced."