What was the 1960 doomsday prediction?

The 1960 doomsday prediction was a claim by Heinz von Foerster and colleagues that human population growth would reach a point where it mathematically approached infinity by 13 November 2026.

Why did the 1960 doomsday prediction gain attention?

The prediction gained attention due to its dramatic conclusion and the public's interest in population growth concerns during the mid-20th century.

Did the 1960 doomsday prediction come true?

No, the prediction did not come true as global population growth began to fall behind the trajectory suggested by the prediction, partly due to declining birth rates.

'Another Doomsday?' Why a 1960 Scientist's Population Prediction Is Going Viral Again in 2026

Heinz von Foerster's 1960 population forecast has resurfaced as falling birth rates challenge its predictions

Doomsday rumours for 13 November make rounds recently — Social media rumours claim the world will end on 13 November 2026, but scientist Heinz von Foerster suggest otherwise Harrison Schmitt/Apollo 17 - https://tothemoon.im-ldi.com/gallery/Apollo/17/6#AS17-148-22727

A decades-old 'doomsday' prediction based on a population equation claimed that human numbers would reach a point where they mathematically approached infinity on 13 November 2026, has resurfaced as the predicted date arrives.

Published in the journal Science in 1960, the controversial paper by Austrian-American scientist Heinz von Foerster and his colleagues examined the rapid growth of the world's population, but later demographic trends moved away from the scenario it predicted.

The paper, titled Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026, argued that human population growth was accelerating so quickly that the equation used by the researchers would eventually stop producing meaningful results, with the projected figures shooting towards infinity. The dramatic conclusion made the study one of the more widely discussed examples of how scientific predictions can capture public interest.

Doomsday Prediction That Shocked the Scientific World

The news came after concerns about global population growth became a major issue during the mid-20th century. Many researchers raised concerns that rising populations could create pressure on food supplies, resources and political stability. These concerns reflected ideas associated with economist Thomas Malthus and his theories on population growth.

Von Foerster, along with his students Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot, took a different approach. They argued that humans were unusual because their ability to communicate, cooperate and form groups could allow population growth to exceed ordinary exponential patterns.

Using 24 population estimates covering around 2,000 years of history, the researchers argued that human numbers had repeatedly grown faster than earlier expectations. Their calculations suggested that by 2026, the population equation would reach a point where it could no longer provide a meaningful result.

The phrase that made the paper unforgettable came from the researchers' own warning: 'Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve. They will be squeezed to death.'

The prediction caused an immediate stir. Reports appeared in major publications, and the idea was referenced in popular culture, including a series of Pogo comic strips. Some commentators viewed the paper as a tongue-in-cheek response to growing fears about population expansion.

End of the World 2026 Claim Lost Ground as Birth Rates Fell

For a time, von Foerster's prediction appeared surprisingly accurate. The equation produced forecasts that were, during the 1970s and 1980s, closer than many demographic projections, helping the so-called 'doomsday' idea remain part of scientific discussions.

But the numbers eventually moved away from the predicted path. Around 1993, roughly halfway to the forecast date, global population growth began falling behind the trajectory suggested by von Foerster's calculations.

The shift was linked partly to declining birth rates. The researchers had argued that reducing global birth rates could help prevent the population pressures they feared. Today, the global birth rate is slightly less than half what it was in 1960.

The paper also attracted criticism from mathematicians and demographers, who challenged the assumptions behind the equation. Critics argued that the model did not fully account for practical limits on how quickly human populations could increase.

Interest in the 13 November 2026 date has resurfaced as the predicted year approaches, but the original forecast is not considered a literal prediction that humanity will disappear. Instead, von Foerster's work remains a striking example of how mathematics, public anxiety and presentation can combine to create a scientific idea that continues to attract attention decades later.