Can Trump's Russia Tariffs Rattle the Global Economy? Secondary Tariffs Threaten Huge Effects

President Donald Trump's threat to impose secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian oil and gas, announced on 29 July 2025, has sparked fears of a global economic shock.

With a 10-day deadline for Russia to agree to a Ukraine ceasefire or face sanctions, nations like China, India, and Turkey face severe trade penalties.

What are the tariffs' potential impact, the global energy market risks, and the geopolitical fallout driving this bold policy?

A High-Stakes Ultimatum: Tariff Details and Targets

Trump's directive targets countries purchasing Russian energy, which accounts for approximately 55% of Russia's total export revenue, with China, India, Brazil, and Turkey as primary buyers of its oil and gas exports

The proposed 100% secondary tariffs would double import costs by adding a full-value tax, potentially reducing global oil supply by up to 3.5 million barrels per day if major buyers like China and India scale back.

US envoy Steve Witkoff, set to visit Moscow on 6 August, is pressing for compliance before the 8 August deadline. A White House official told the BBC, 'President Trump wants to stop the killing.'

The tariffs aim to cripple Russia's £135 billion ($180 billion) energy export revenue, which funds its Ukraine war effort.

However, India, importing £30 million ($40 million) monthly, has signaled resistance, with diplomats telling Reuters, 'We remain focused on the substantive agenda that our two countries have committed to and are confident that the relationship will continue to move forward'

X posts from @vtchakarova warn, 'Trump's secondary sanctions ultimatum is more than a threat to Russia – it is a global shock test,' highlighting the risk to free trade principles.

Global Energy Markets: Price Spikes and Inflation Risks

A supply chain shock could push oil prices to £90 ($120), fueling inflation, which hit 3.6% in the US in June 2025.

X posts from @TimBurgess80 note, 'This would jack up global energy prices, spike inflation fears, and hit markets hard.'

Smaller economies, like Turkey, face severe risks, with 40% of its gas from Russia. The bond market volatility feared by analysts could destabilize currencies, with India's rupee already down 2% against the dollar since July.

The tariffs' ripple effects may also hit US consumers, with gasoline prices potentially rising by £0.22 ($0.30) per gallon, per AAA estimates.

Geopolitical Fallout: A Risky Gamble

Trump's strategy leverages US economic power to force a Ukraine ceasefire but risks alienating allies and escalating trade wars.

China, importing 2.2 million barrels daily from Russia, could retaliate by halting rare earth exports, critical for US tech industries, as noted by @Vozi33CZ on X: 'Secondary sanctions on China will destroy US bond markets and drive inflation.'

The EU, still recovering from 2022 energy shocks, faces a potential 15% increase in LNG costs, per S&P Global, straining relations with the US.

The policy's timing, amid Trump's second-term push for America First, has drawn criticism.

@OlgaBazova on X called it 'an empty threat,' arguing that enforcing tariffs could hurt the US most by disrupting global trade.

With Russia vowing defiance and no ceasefire in sight, the tariffs risk triggering a forced decoupling of energy markets, potentially reshaping global alliances and trade flows for decades.