GTA 6 Launch Could Cost US Economy $1 Billion in Lost Productivity, Estimate Suggests

Around 1.5 million Americans could skip work on Thursday, 19 November, when Grand Theft Auto 6 arrives, with one economist estimating that the absences could cost the US economy roughly $1 billion (£740 million) in lost output.

Where the Billion Dollars Actually Goes

A widely circulated estimate suggests that GTA 6's launch could result in substantial lost productivity in the US. However, the claim that 1.5 million workers will miss work has not been independently verified. José García Montalvo, a professor of economics at Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona, has discussed the potential effects of gaming on working time, but his 2025 interview did not establish that national headcount.

The widely reported $1 billion figure is an estimate of potential lost output, not a verified measure of economic damage. Its accuracy depends on assumptions about the number of workers absent and the output lost during their absence. Montalvo has discussed younger men and technology workers as groups that may be more likely to adjust their working hours around gaming. However, there is no verified national breakdown showing which groups will account for the most absences on GTA 6's launch day.

That sum is an estimate of lost economic output, not money that automatically flows to the game publisher. Take-Two Interactive, Rockstar's parent, stands to benefit commercially from the game's launch, but the claim that it expects to earn close to $1 billion on launch day requires independent verification. Much of the game's development is handled by Rockstar North in Edinburgh, Scotland, the lead studio behind the game.

One Viral Memo Turns Staffing Into a Punchline

The clearest sign that bosses are watching came from Burger Motorsports, a performance car-parts maker in Simi Valley, California. The company posted an internal-style memo on Instagram announcing a 'temporary company-wide operational pause' on 19 November, citing 'multiple employee scheduling conflicts' after staff warned they would be 'in Vice City'.

Burger Motorsports later told The California Post the notice was tongue-in-cheek, and several outlets read it as a publicity stunt that worked. The company subsequently clarified that it was operating normally and that customers could rely on its usual order processing and support. The post illustrates how GTA 6's launch has become a talking point among employers and gamers, but it does not establish the scale of any resulting staffing disruption.

Who Loses the Day and Who Banks It

Market research firm Newzoo estimates GTA 6 could sell at least 37 million copies in its opening week, with global first-week retail bookings running as high as $4.5 billion (£3.36 billion).

Take-Two has confirmed the GTA franchise has sold nearly 475 million units, while Sensor Tower estimates GTA 6 digital pre-orders at around 6 million.

The pattern is not new. When Grand Theft Auto 5 launched in 2013, an IGN poll of nearly 11,000 readers found 46% had already booked the day off and another 19% planned to call in sick.

Take-Two chief executive Strauss Zelnick has joked that some people will call in sick on launch day. His remark reflects the game's anticipated popularity, but it does not quantify the likely effect on workplace attendance or productivity.

What a Thursday Launch Means for Small Firms

GTA 6 arrives on a Thursday, one week before Thanksgiving, on a normal working day rather than a weekend. Smaller businesses could be more vulnerable to unexpected staff absences because they have fewer employees available to cover shifts. However, the extent of any disruption caused by GTA 6's launch remains unknown.

Montalvo's $1 billion is an estimate, not an audited figure, and its method has drawn scrutiny. What is harder to argue with is the direction of the potential productivity loss and the commercial opportunity for the game's publisher.

On 19 November, some US businesses could face staffing or productivity challenges if employees take time off, while Rockstar and Take-Two seek to capitalise on demand for the game.