Leaked Audio Catches G.O.P. Senate Nominee Ken Paxton Admitting Trump Convention Hurt Republican Poll Numbers

Texas Attorney General and Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton was recorded telling donors that Republican poll numbers fell after the Trump-headlined midterm convention in Dallas, according to audio obtained by The New York Times.

Paxton made the comments at a private fundraiser in Washington last week attended by conservative donors and lobbyists.

In the recording, an attendee can be heard asking: 'Do you feel like he's a little bit of a drag?' The audio does not make it clear who the person meant by 'he'.

Paxton replied: 'So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers. Everybody's numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.'

Three other people confirmed Paxton attended the fundraiser, according to the Times. The person who made the recording opposes Paxton's Senate campaign.

Paxton's Assessment Appears at Odds With Trump's

Paxton's private assessment appears at odds with Trump's public description of the Republican convention, held in Dallas earlier this month.

Trump told reporters on 13 September that the event had been 'very successful' and said he believed it had 'really helped Ken Paxton'.

The two-day Republican convention put a national spotlight on the party's midterm campaign, with Trump repeatedly promoting Paxton while appearing in his home state. Paxton's campaign disputed the interpretation of the leaked recording.

Senior adviser Nick Maddux said the campaign's latest internal poll had Paxton ahead by three percentage points and argued that his numbers had improved since early September. Internal campaign polling cannot be independently verified. Public surveys have produced varying results.

A Marist poll published on 23 September, based on interviews conducted from 17 to 20 September, showed Democratic nominee James Talarico at 50% and Paxton at 44% among registered Texas voters.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Other September surveys have shown substantially narrower margins between the two candidates.

Republicans Pour Millions Into Texas

The recording surfaced as Republican-aligned groups pour extraordinary sums into a Senate contest in a state the party has dominated for decades.

Republican-aligned organisations planned to spend about $166 million supporting Paxton from the beginning of September through Election Day.

Including spending tied to the bitter Republican primary, the total GOP-aligned cost of the Texas Senate contest is expected to exceed $300 million. The advertising blitz has been difficult to miss. Pro-Paxton advertising purchased by a Texas PAC ran more than 750 times during Judge Judy in September and about 1,300 times during college football broadcasts.

Paxton's own authorised campaign committees have also raised far less than Talarico's campaign. Federal Election Commission data through 30 June show Paxton's authorised Senate committees reporting about $9.25 million in receipts, compared with approximately $68.6 million for Talarico's campaign. Those figures measure candidate-controlled fundraising and do not include the substantial outside spending being deployed on Paxton's behalf.

Trump Endorsed Paxton Before He Defeated Cornyn

Trump endorsed Paxton against longtime Senator John Cornyn one week before the Republican runoff, which Paxton won on 26 May.

National Republican groups have since committed heavily to keeping the Texas seat in GOP hands, while Democratic outside groups have also begun spending in the state.

The leaked recording does not establish that Paxton was directly calling Trump himself 'a drag', because the questioner's reference is unclear.

What Paxton does say plainly, however, is that after the Trump-headlined Dallas convention, 'everybody's numbers dropped', an assessment that appears at odds with Trump's public statement days later that the convention had helped his endorsed candidate.