The Open Championship Odds and Predictions as Portrush Pressure Mounts for McIlroy and Scheffler Faces Doubts

The Open Championship returns to Royal Portrush for the first time since 2019, and local favourite Rory McIlroy is under intense scrutiny as the final major of the golf season gets underway. McIlroy, who completed his long-awaited career grand slam with a victory at the 2025 Masters, is listed with the second-shortest odds to win the tournament at +700. Despite his pedigree and recent form, questions remain about how he will handle the home-course pressure.

Leading the market is World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who opens as the +450 favourite. Though Scheffler captured this year's PGA Championship, some betting analysts remain cautious about his value given the tight field and course-specific challenges at Portrush.

With tee times beginning early Thursday, both McIlroy and Scheffler headline a deep field also featuring Jon Rahm (12-1), Bryson DeChambeau (20-1) and defending champion Xander Schauffele, who sits at longer odds of +2500.

Scheffler's short odds despite strong season

While bookmakers favour Scheffler for The Open Championship, betting expert Sia Nejad has advised caution. Known for his analytical approach and track record in identifying longshots, Nejad is fading Scheffler, despite his recent major win and consistent finishes.

'I have no interest in betting Scottie Scheffler's short number', Nejad said, citing limited value in his current odds. However, Nejad did note that alternate markets excluding Scheffler, or Scheffler and McIlroy together, may offer more appealing options.

Scheffler's performance in 2025 has been remarkably consistent. Still, his ability to convert those results into wins at links-style courses like Portrush remains under the microscope for both analysts and punters.

Portrush adds complexity for McIlroy as punters weigh emotional factor

For McIlroy, this week represents more than just another major. The Northern Irishman famously missed the cut at Royal Portrush in 2019 after an opening-round collapse. Six years later, he returns not only as a Masters champion but as a crowd favourite with high expectations.

According to recent odds, McIlroy is a top contender, but his emotional connection to the course introduces uncertainty. Experts are divided on whether the pressure will push him to victory or hinder his performance.

His second-place finish at the Scottish Open shows strong form, but concerns remain about specific aspects of his game, especially off the tee, where small mistakes at Portrush can have outsized consequences.

Analysts eye longshots as tight field and weather raise volatility

While most attention is on McIlroy and Scheffler, analysts like Nejad have highlighted the potential of longshots to surprise at The Open Championship 2025. The unpredictable nature of links golf, combined with forecasted weather changes over the weekend, could open the door for less favoured players.

Nejad teased a double-digit longshot whose 'underwhelming 2025 is about to take a turn', though he did not name the player publicly. His previous record includes correctly backing 75-1 winner Wyndham Clark at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship, lending weight to his predictions.

As punters gear up to watch The Open Championship, market activity may shift significantly once play begins, particularly if early favourites struggle with Portrush's unique layout and local weather conditions.