China-Japan Tensions Highlight Lunar New Year Celebrations As Chinese Tourists Favor South Korea

As China's nine-day Lunar New Year holidays commenced on Sunday, a notable shift in travel patterns emerged, underscoring escalating diplomatic frictions between them and Japan. With the latter falling out of favour among Chinese tourists due to ongoing tensions over Taiwan, destinations such as South Korea are witnessing a surge in visitors.

The Lunar New Year, a period traditionally marked by family reunions and extensive travel, is projected to see a record 9.5 billion trips during the 40-day Spring Festival rush, known as 'Chunyun,' extending through March. However, this year's celebrations are overshadowed by bilateral strains, influencing millions in their choice of holiday destinations.

Diplomatic Tensions Drive Travel Warnings

Local Japanese media cites that the root of the discord lies in remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in November, suggesting potential Japanese intervention in a Taiwan crisis—a stance that Beijing views as a direct challenge to its sovereignty. China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, reiterated criticisms at the Munich Security Conference, warning of 'dangerous trends' in Japan and accusing Takaichi of attempting to revive militarism.

These comments have fuelled Beijing's repeated urgings for citizens to avoid Japan, citing increased crimes against Chinese nationals.

Compounding the issue, a fatal stabbing in Osaka's bustling Dotombori district prompted the Chinese Consulate General in Osaka to renew its advisory on Sunday, emphasising personal safety concerns for residents and travellers alike. Such warnings have effectively deterred many, with Japan plummeting from the top 10 overseas destinations for Chinese holidaymakers.

Shift in Travel Preferences: South Korea Rises

In stark contrast, South Korea is poised to welcome approximately 250,000 Chinese visitors during the holidays, marking a 1.5-fold increase from the previous year. This surge positions it as a leading choice, alongside Southeast Asian nations like Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam, as well as Turkey and Russia.

A January survey by Tokyo-based IntaSect Communications cited by a Nikkei Asia report, conducted via WeChat among 2,869 Chinese residents, revealed Japan slipping to third place with just 15 per cent selecting it as their preferred destination. Southeast Asia topped the list at 39 per cent, followed by South Korea at 1 per cent, indicating a clear pivot away from Japan amid the spat.

Travellers at Beijing Capital International Airport were seen queuing for flights to South Korea, reflecting this trend.

Devastating Impact on Japanese Tourism

The fallout for Japan is palpable, with hotel cancellations from Chinese bookings reportedly exceeding 50 per cent for the Lunar New Year period, reaching 53.6 per cent—a 14.9 percentage point rise from 2025.

Nationwide, the number of Japan-bound Chinese tourists is anticipated to plummet by up to 60 per cent compared to last year. Flights between Japan and mainland China are down 31 per cent, with available seats reduced by 26 per cent. Airports like Kansai International saw a 60 per cent drop in China-connected flights in January, while Narita experienced declines of 18 per cent in December and 27 per cent in early January.

Chinese visitors, who comprised 21 per cent of foreign tourists and 20 per cent of travel spending in Japan in 2025, are expected to halve in numbers, leading to a 48.5 billion yen (£317 million/$431 million) spending shortfall and a 0.01 per cent dent in nominal gross domestic product.

Retail Sector Feels the Pinch

Japanese retailers are bracing for impact, with duty-free sales at major department stores like Isetan Mitsukoshi, Takashimaya and Daimaru Matsuzakaya falling over 10 per cent in January. The Japan Department Stores Association anticipates prolonged difficulties.

In response, chains are targeting alternative markets: Takashimaya issues VIP cards in Thailand and Vietnam, while Tsuruha Group and Bic Camera adjust displays for Southeast Asian and Western tourists.

December 2025 saw Chinese arrivals down 45 per cent to 330,000, contrasted by a 14 per cent rise from Southeast Asia to over 650,000. Economists predict the downturn may persist until mid-2026, potentially diversifying Japan's inbound tourism market.

This Lunar New Year, the blend of festivity and friction serves as a reminder of how geopolitical tensions can reshape global travel dynamics, with South Korea emerging as a beneficiary while Japan grapples with economic repercussions.