Tropical Cyclone Verbena Forms, Up To Intense Rains Forecast Across Visayas And Bicol

The Philippines has barely had time to recover from the devastation of late-season storms Tino and Uwan, which collectively claimed over 250 lives and incurred billions in damages. Now, another major weather disturbance is looming large, threatening to saturate already sodden ground.

A low pressure area (LPA) that formed east of Mindanao early Sunday officially entered the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) at 8 a.m.. This system, which was last spotted 845 km east of northeastern Mindanao, immediately brings with it a high potential for tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. Should this potential be realised, the system will be assigned the local name 'Verbena'—a species of a flowering plant.

This potential storm marks the 22nd tropical cyclone inside the PAR this year. While the previous typhoons, Tino and Super Typhoon Uwan, brought destructive winds, the concern surrounding 'Verbena' is different. The weather bureau, PAGASA, has specifically warned that the potential storm is not expected to have intense winds but will instead be a 'rain maker'.

The consequences of such a system cannot be overstated. With the ground saturated from previous downpours, the impending moderate to intense rainfall increases the danger of widespread flooding and potentially fatal landslides.

Tropical Cyclone Verbena: The Imminent Rain Maker's Path

Initial projections map out a rapid trajectory for 'Verbena' across the central and southern portions of the country. The system is forecast to make landfall over the Caraga region as early as Monday evening.

From there, it will move northwestward through Visayas and northern MIMAROPA before emerging over the West Philippine Sea by early Wednesday. This path means that multiple, already vulnerable, regions will experience significant rainfall over several days.

PAGASA has issued a heavy rainfall outlook, warning that moderate to heavy rains will be experienced in Eastern and Central Visayas, Siquijor, and parts of Caraga and Northern Mindanao as early as Monday. However, as the storm crosses the country, this risk escalates significantly. Up to intense rains may be expected across Visayas, Bicol, CALABARZON, and MIMAROPA.

Furthermore, the weather bureau noted that the potential storm may enhance the effects of the shear line, affecting regions in the northern part of the country, including Cagayan Valley and Aurora. The primary danger remains the sheer volume of water, with PAGASA cautioning that heavier rainfall may be experienced in mountainous and elevated areas.

The cumulative impact of earlier rainfall, known as antecedent rainfall, is specifically mentioned as a factor that may worsen the impacts in some areas. Authorities have thus warned against expected flooding and landslides in many parts of the country.

Aftermath Of Past Storms: Why Verbena's Arrival Matters

The arrival of 'Verbena' is not an isolated weather event; it must be viewed in the context of a disastrous late-year cyclonic season. This system, marking the 22nd overall tropical cyclone inside the PAR this year, follows a period of intense devastation.

Earlier in November, Typhoon Tino and Super Typhoon Uwan ravaged the central Philippines and Northern Luzon, respectively. The scale of the human tragedy was immense: More than 250 people perished and over 100 remain missing due to Tino after torrential rains led to massive flash floods in Cebu and Negros.

The subsequent financial ruin highlights the vulnerability of the nation's infrastructure. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported damages exceeding P1 billion in agriculture and infrastructure. Meanwhile, Super Typhoon Uwan alone left 33 people dead and caused Php 4.8 billion damage in its wake.

With PAGASA forecasting up to two additional tropical cyclones inside the PAR this December, the need for vigilance against 'Verbena' is paramount. Its designation as a 'rain maker' means the potential for flooding and landslides—the deadly legacies of Tino and Uwan—remains the greatest threat.