UK's Migration-Driven Growth Sparks Census Debate: Calls for 2026 Count to Assess Infrastructure Risks

Calls for a UK emergency census are mounting as migration-driven population growth sparks debate over infrastructure risks. A leading think tank has urged the government to conduct a snap count in 2026 to gauge the full extent of recent demographic shifts, amid fears of strain on housing, services and social integration.

The Policy Exchange report highlights how mass migration has triggered social change, calling for updated data to identify extremism risks. Net migration stood at 204,000 in the year to June 2025, contributing to a population of 69.3 million by mid-2024—the second-largest annual increase in 75 years.

Migration Surge and Population Trends

The UK has seen significant population growth, largely driven by international migration. From mid-2023 to mid-2024, the population rose by 755,000, with 98% attributed to net migration of 738,000. This follows a peak net migration of 944,000 in the year to March 2023, just after the 2021 census, which may have missed millions.

The Office for National Statistics projects the population could reach 72.5 million by 2032, entirely from net migration as births and deaths balance out from 2029. Such rapid change has raised alarms about overcrowding and resource allocation—hardly unexpected in a nation already densely populated. Immigration fills labour gaps in sectors like health but adds pressure on public services, with one in five now foreign-born.

Long-term immigration of asylum seekers was 96,000 in the year ending June 2025, making up 11% of all immigration. The surge post-Covid led to record levels in 2023, with a decline noted in 2025 due to policy adjustments.

Infrastructure Risks and Economic Impacts

High migration levels have spotlighted infrastructure risks, including congestion and service strains. A report estimates traffic congestion costs could rise by £5 billion ($6.7 billion) annually by 2025 due to population growth from immigration. Housing demand surges, with rents climbing during peak migration years, exacerbating affordability issues.

The market research sector, valued at £9 billion ($12.1 billion), relies on accurate census data for business and policy insights. Concerns extend to social cohesion, with warnings of ethnic and religious segregation potentially fostering extremism in changing neighbourhoods. On X, verified accounts like GB News have amplified these issues, noting migration could add six million to the population by 2036.

While migration boosts GDP through workforce expansion, per capita growth remains modest, and gaps in migration statistics hamper effective policy decisions.

Push for UK Emergency Census

The Policy Exchange report, endorsed by former chancellor Nadhim Zahawi and Labour peer Lord Maurice Glasman, calls for a 2026 census to update outdated 2021 data. Zahawi said, 'Massive population growth, spurred by unprecedented levels of mass migration in the last five years or so, makes the case for an emergency census next year inarguable.'

Glasman added, 'In the interests of protecting critical infrastructure and identifying risks of civil unrest, the country needs up-to-date population data which provides vital on-the-ground insights.' This echoes the 1966 sample census held amid Commonwealth migration worries. The government has confirmed the 2031 census but faces growing pressure for an interim count.

As of 17 December 2025, ministers have not committed to a UK emergency census, but with projections of 340,000 annual net migration from 2028, the push for better data to manage infrastructure risks and promote integration persists.