Early Voting Surges as Expert Says Republicans Are 'Not as Engaged' in Key States

Early ballots cast by registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters are increasing faster than those cast by registered Republicans in several US states ahead of the 3 November 2026 midterm elections. Figures reported on Friday, 23 October, showed North Carolina had accepted more than 1.2 million early ballots, while the nationwide total exceeded 23 million.

An analysis published that day by Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at Catawba College, found North Carolina's accepted early-ballot total running 37 per cent ahead of the comparable point in 2022. Early voting among registered Democrats was up 47 per cent, compared with 60 per cent among unaffiliated voters and roughly 2.6 per cent among registered Republicans.

More than 23 million early ballots had been accepted nationwide, compared with more than 15 million at a comparable stage before the 2022 midterms, according to figures reported by The Hill. A New York Times analysis of state election records through Thursday, 22 October, found early-voting increases of approximately 69 per cent in Kansas, 41 per cent in Maine and 24 per cent in Iowa.

A Turnout Gap With Limits

Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political science professor who tracks early voting, said Democrats and unaffiliated voters were outpacing Republicans in states with comparable registration data, including Kansas, Maine, Iowa and Nebraska.

'It's the same pattern. Democrats and unaffiliateds are engaged. Republicans are not as engaged,' McDonald told The Hill. He said the pattern helps explain why the battleground appears to be shifting towards traditionally Republican-leaning states with competitive Senate races.

Not every state records voters' party affiliations, and registration data cannot establish which candidates individual voters supported. Differences in mail-ballot distribution timing can complicate comparisons between election cycles.

McDonald argued that the early figures align with polling showing stronger Democratic enthusiasm, giving him greater confidence in those surveys.

Texas Tests Democratic Hopes

Texas presents a less clear picture. Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico is seeking to defeat Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate, and secure his party's first statewide election victory since 1994.

Of the 2.06 million Texans who had voted in person or returned mail ballots by Thursday, Decision Desk HQ's modelling estimated that 44.3 per cent were Democratic-leaning and 43.7 per cent Republican-leaning. Its estimates also indicated that Democratic-leaning Hispanic early voters outnumbered their Republican-leaning counterparts by approximately 2.5 to 1. These are modelled estimates of partisan affiliation, not confirmed votes for individual candidates.

More than 158,000 in-person ballots were cast in Travis County during the first four days of early voting, approximately 61 per cent more than at the equivalent stage in 2022 and 19 per cent more than in 2018, according to a compilation of state election figures provided by the Travis County Democratic Party. The county's registered electorate has grown since 2018, so the increase in ballots does not necessarily reflect an equivalent rise in turnout.

Luke Warford, chair of the Travis County Democratic Party, told The Hill that turnout was exceeding comparable 2018 and 2022 levels and approaching its 2024 pace.

Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said Democrats still need urban margins large enough to offset Republican strength in rural areas. 'High turnout is necessary for Democrats, but not sufficient,' he said. He added that the surge is 'not only a Democratic story', describing a 'slight purple tinge' to turnout, with rural Republican areas starting slower but catching up.

Georgia and Virginia in Focus

In Georgia, voters had cast about 1.5 million early ballots through Thursday, compared with roughly 1.4 million at the same point in 2022. Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is seeking re-election against Republican Mike Collins. A Decision Desk HQ election forecast updated on 23 October estimated Ossoff's probability of victory at 86 per cent, although the forecast does not guarantee the outcome. Georgia does not register voters by party.

Emory University political scientist Andra Gillespie said Democrats could benefit from increased participation among Black voters and residents of metropolitan areas including Atlanta, Athens, Savannah, Macon and Augusta. However, she noted strong participation in traditionally Republican-leaning Cherokee and Forsyth counties, making it difficult to determine which party would ultimately benefit.

Virginia recorded nearly 930,000 early ballots through Thursday, about 80 per cent more than at the comparable stage in 2022, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington, said participation was concentrated in districts where Republican incumbents faced competitive races, while polling suggests Democrats are far more interested in voting than Republicans.

What Could Still Change

Republicans could narrow the gap before Election Day. They have historically relied more on mail voting, and Trump has repeatedly criticised mail voting and supported restrictions on the practice. However, in a campaign video released on 3 October, he encouraged Republican supporters to vote early, by mail or in person on Election Day, while continuing to express a preference for in-person voting.

Gillespie said the central question is whether Republicans now take greater advantage of early voting. If they do, familiar Election Day surges in Republican areas may be less pronounced.

McDonald suggested that concerns about mail voting could encourage more Democrats to vote in person, potentially reducing the number of rejected Democratic mail ballots. The US Election Assistance Commission reported that 584,463 mail ballots were rejected during the 2024 general election. However, it remains unclear whether changes in voting methods will significantly affect rejection totals in 2026.

With early voting still underway, the current figures cannot show which party will lead once every ballot is counted.