Texas Latinos Desert Republicans as 56% Now Support Democrats Over Prices and Immigration

Democrats lead Republicans by 56 per cent to 36 per cent among Latino voters in three of Texas's most competitive US House districts, according to a new Hart Research survey for TelevisaUnivision.

The 20-point gap reverses the rightward move that helped Republicans two years ago, and it comes as narrow margins among Latino voters could help decide control of Congress in November.

A Sharp Turn Since the 2024 Tie

In those districts, respondents recalled a 44 per cent to 44 per cent split between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race. For 2026, the same voters have broken for Democrats, a lead the party did not hold at the top of the ticket. Across the wider survey, 11 per cent of 2024 Trump backers now say they will vote Democratic for Congress.

Republicans had counted on Trump's 2024 gains with Latino voters proving durable. The survey indicates that support is tied to present concerns, chiefly the cost of living and immigration enforcement.

About two-thirds of Latino voters gave the president negative marks on prices, and a similar share objected to how the government has run deportations and enforcement. On who would do more to bring prices down, Democrats in Congress were preferred over Republicans by 62 per cent to 36 per cent. Immigration and Customs Enforcement itself drew a 64 per cent unfavourable rating, climbing to 65 per cent among independents. His overall job rating stood at 36 per cent approval against 63 per cent disapproval.

'Latino voters aren't locked into one party,' Kate Coleman, a senior vice president at TelevisaUnivision, told Axios. 'They're paying close attention and making decisions based on who shows up for them, and how they're showing up.'

A Statewide Poll Points the Same Way

A separate, more recent survey found the same tilt beyond those districts. An N+ Univision poll of 1,000 Texas voters, carried out by YouGov from 27 August to 4 September, found the leading statewide races deadlocked. Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Republican Governor Greg Abbott were tied at 47 per cent each, while Democrat James Talarico held a narrow edge over Republican Ken Paxton in the US Senate contest, 48 per cent to 43 per cent.

Among the poll's 564 Hispanic voters, the largest such oversample in a Texas survey this cycle, the lean was steeper. Talarico led Paxton 56 per cent to 37 per cent and Hinojosa led Abbott 54 per cent to 42 per cent. Hispanic voters had shifted 11 points towards Democrats since 2024, and 70 per cent disapproved of Trump on the cost of living and fuel prices.

Part of a Wider Battleground Shift

The Texas readings sit within a broader pattern. Conducted between 6 and 17 August, the battleground survey covered 1,500 Latino registered voters in 17 competitive districts, with the Texas portion drawn from 300 interviews across the 23rd, 28th, and 35th districts.

Across all 17 seats, Democrats led 58 per cent to 35 per cent, about double Harris's 2024 edge over Trump among the same voters. California's Latino voters split 57 per cent to 33 per cent for Democrats, while Florida moved from a one-point Trump lead to a 13-point Democratic advantage. The full survey carried a margin of error of about 2.5 percentage points.

Earlier polling pointed the same way. A May survey for Latino civil rights nonprofit, UnidosUS, found Texas Hispanic voters favouring a Democratic House candidate 54 per cent to 28 per cent, and a national Pew Research Center study last autumn found 70 per cent of Latino adults disapproving of Trump's performance.

Trump had won a modern high of 48 per cent of Latino voters nationally in 2024, up from 36 per cent in 2020, according to Pew Research Center's validated-voter study, with some of his sharpest gains along the Texas-Mexico border.

A generic-ballot lead is not a seat-by-seat forecast. Turnout, the candidates themselves, and local issues will shape individual races, and preferences can still change before ballots are cast.

The three Texas seats include a Democratic-held border district defended by Representative Henry Cuellar and the Austin-San Antonio seat being vacated by Representative Greg Casar.

Polling day falls on 3 November, when Republicans will look to win back voters who drifted away and Democrats to turn their lead into votes cast.