Britain's Prison Crisis Deepens as 650 More Inmates Are Set Free Before Serving Their Full Sentences

About 650 prisoners are due to be released early from jails in England and Wales on Tuesday, in the third wave of the Government's scheme to ease overcrowding. They are serving sentences of more than two years and five months, but less than three years and two months.

The release follows two earlier stages, including one last month involving about 650 prisoners. Ministers now expect around 5,000 people to leave custody early over the next year, rather than the original 6,000. The total was reduced after rape, serious child sex and grooming offences were excluded.

Those convicted of manslaughter are also ineligible, as are terrorists and murderers serving life sentences. The exclusions do not remove the wider change to release rules for eligible prisoners.

Under the revised arrangements, people serving standard fixed-term sentences can be released after serving one-third of their term, rather than half. Those convicted of more serious offences can be released after serving half, instead of two-thirds. People released early remain on licence and may be returned to prison if they breach its conditions.

Early Release as Prison Numbers Rise

Ministry of Justice figures put the prison population in England and Wales at 86,982 on Monday, up from 86,883 the previous week.

The Liberal Democrats say Government projections show 87,200 adult prisoners against 88,300 places in November 2027, followed by 89,700 prisoners against 90,900 places in November 2028.

Jess Brown-Fuller, the party's justice spokeswoman, said prisons were 'running on fumes', with 'barely a thousand spare places and no margin for error'. She urged Justice Secretary Alex Norris to rule out another early release scheme. Brown-Fuller argued that the projections rely on prison-building targets experts warn may not be met.

Government officials say there is a presumption that all those released will wear GPS tags supplied by Serco. The Ministry of Justice has described tighter restrictions for some serious offenders as the 'toughest supervision in British history'. The information provided does not specify how many people in Tuesday's group will be subject to those restrictions.

Housing Concerns After Prison Release

Charities have also raised concerns about accommodation for people leaving prison. Pact, which supports prisoners and their families, says rough sleeping among people released from prison rose from 6,040 in 2022/23 to 14,360 in 2025/26. It says rough sleeping is now recorded in about one in seven releases, compared with one in ten three years earlier.

Andy Keen-Downs, Pact's chief executive, said the Government's pledge to end rough sleeping would require investment in housing and resettlement. 'When someone is released from prison into rough sleeping, we are setting them up to fail,' he said.

Enver Solomon, chief executive of the charity Nacro, said a prison he recently visited aimed to ensure 84 per cent of inmates had accommodation on release. He said that effectively meant accepting that 16 per cent would be homeless.

'With half of rough sleepers having spent time in prison, and hundreds of people a week released from prison into homelessness, it is clear that the government cannot end rough sleeping without ending prison leaver homelessness,' he said.

Solomon called safe housing 'one of the foundation stones of rehabilitation' and said support must extend beyond the first night.

Parties Challenge the Scheme

Zia Yusuf, Reform UK's home affairs spokesman, called each release 'an indictment of successive Tory and Labour ministers'. He said 5,000 prisoners would be freed before completing their sentences and claimed many were dangerous. No breakdown was provided to support that claim.

Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin stood outside HMP Wandsworth on Tuesday, saying she was concerned about women's safety and the release of domestic abuse perpetrators. Asked about overcrowding, she proposed deporting foreign national offenders.