Flávio Bolsonaro Stuns Pollsters, Beats Lula in First Round as Brazil Heads for Tight October Runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro has delivered a major upset in Brazil's presidential election, finishing ahead of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round despite several pre-election polls putting the veteran leftist president in front.

With almost all votes counted, Bolsonaro secured about 47% of valid ballots compared with roughly 45% for Lula, according to election results reported on Sunday. Neither candidate crossed the 50% threshold needed to win outright, sending Brazil into a decisive runoff on 25 October.

Bolsonaro received more than 56 million votes, while Lula finished with approximately 53.7 million. The result does not make Bolsonaro president, but it gives the 45-year-old senator a psychological advantage heading into three more weeks of campaigning.

Bolsonaro Result Defies Final Polls

The first-round result was particularly striking because several major polls had shown Lula narrowly ahead immediately before voting. A CNT/MDA survey released shortly before the election placed the incumbent in front, while Datafolha had also shown Lula holding a narrow advantage in a potential runoff scenario.

Bolsonaro ultimately outperformed those expectations. Speaking after the result, he said voters had sent a message that Brazil wanted "change" and celebrated support from nearly 56 million Brazilians.

His campaign has focused heavily on crime, inflation, public debt and dissatisfaction with Lula's government. Bolsonaro has also positioned himself as more business-friendly and politically aligned with US President Donald Trump.

Markets were expected to respond positively to his stronger-than-anticipated performance, reflecting investor expectations that a Bolsonaro government could pursue more market-oriented economic policies.

Lula Now Faces a Much Tighter Fight

For Lula, 80, the result leaves his bid for an unprecedented fourth non-consecutive presidential term in a more precarious position.

The Workers' Party leader had entered election day hoping his welfare record and previous economic achievements would outweigh voter concerns over the cost of living, crime and recent political scandals.

During the final days of campaigning, Lula framed the election as a choice over Brazil's democratic future and drew a large crowd to his closing rally in São Paulo. But Sunday's vote showed that anti-incumbent sentiment remained powerful enough to push Bolsonaro into first place.

The campaign is also deeply shaped by the legacy of Flávio's father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who lost to Lula in 2022 and is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence following his conviction over a plot to overturn that result.

What Happens in the 25 October Runoff?

The second round now becomes a direct contest between Bolsonaro and Lula.

Nearly 159 million Brazilians were eligible to participate in the election, making the result consequential not only for Latin America's largest economy but also for Brazil's relationships with the United States, China and its regional neighbours.

Neither of the candidates who finished immediately behind the two frontrunners had endorsed Bolsonaro or Lula as of the first-round result, leaving both campaigns competing for voters who backed other candidates.

The runoff is expected to focus heavily on crime, inflation, corruption, public spending and Brazil's place between Washington and Beijing.

For Bolsonaro, Sunday's surprise lead provides momentum. For Lula, however, the race is far from over.

Recent polling had suggested the two would be extremely competitive in a head-to-head contest, meaning Bolsonaro's first-round victory may have overturned expectations, but it has not yet decided who will govern Brazil.