Hurricane Lorena Path Tracker: Which States Should Brace, Expected Damages

Hurricane Lorena has intensified into a Category 1 storm off the western coast of Mexico, triggering urgent warnings of heavy rainfall, flooding and coastal damage. The storm is moving north-west along the Baja California Sur peninsula and is expected to make landfall by Friday.

The system has already drawn attention from forecasters across North America. While Mexico faces the brunt of the storm, US states including Texas, Arizona and New Mexico are expected to experience tropical moisture and flash flooding in its wake.

Lorena's Path and Forecast

According to the Associated Press, Lorena is moving north-west along Baja California Sur and is expected to curve eastward, with landfall projected on the peninsula by Friday. Tropical storm alerts have been issued from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe, with forecasts warning of intense rain, flash flooding and hazardous coastal conditions.

Data from Cyclocane shows that Lorena's winds have reached up to 90 mph (80 knots). The system is expected to weaken into a tropical storm before landfall and may dissipate into a remnant low by the weekend.

Mexico on High Alert

Baja California Sur is forecast to receive up to 15 inches of rain, according to MySA, raising the threat of flash floods and landslides. Southwestern Sonora is also expected to experience significant flooding, with early signs already reported.

Local authorities are preparing for evacuations, road closures and possible power outages. Agriculture, rural infrastructure and tourism are among the sectors most vulnerable. Travel hubs along the coast may face cancellations and delays as conditions worsen.

Effects in the United States

Although Lorena is not expected to make landfall in the United States, its remnants are forecast to bring widespread rainfall.

In Texas, the Houston Chronicle reported that an excessive rainfall alert has been issued, with the I-35 corridor from San Antonio to Dallas-Fort Worth likely to see bands of tropical moisture. Houston may also experience heavier downpours as Lorena's remnants interact with a separate weather system.

Further west, Arizona and southern New Mexico are forecast to receive one to two inches of rain, with some locations seeing up to five inches. The San Antonio Express-News noted that the storm's merger with Gulf humidity could intensify rainfall across the central United States.

Expected Damages and Response

In Mexico, flooding may damage coastal roads, homes and farmland. Tourist centres in Baja California Sur are bracing for cancellations, while rural communities face heightened risks of landslides and infrastructure disruption.

In the US Southwest, the main threat lies in flash flooding and blocked roads. Local authorities have warned that urban areas could struggle with overwhelmed drainage systems during bursts of heavy rain, and emergency services remain on alert through the weekend.

Outlook

Forecasters expect Lorena to weaken after landfall but warn that rainfall levels remain difficult to predict, as intensity will depend on how the storm interacts with other weather systems.

Mexico is preparing for the most severe impact, with Baja California Sur and Sonora at high risk of flooding and landslides. In the United States, Texas, Arizona and New Mexico remain on alert for tropical rainfall that could cause localised disruption. The scale of damage will depend on Lorena's trajectory and how its remnants merge with other weather systems over the weekend.