US Unemployment Jumps to 4.6% — Worst Surprise in Months

The United States labour market has delivered its biggest shock in months, with new government statistics showing that unemployment remains at 4.6 per cent, the highest level since 2021.

The new jobs report released in November, which had been postponed due to the recent federal shutdown, indicated that the economy had recovered 64,000 jobs. However, this was not enough to counter the general cooling trend, which economists claim is becoming hard to ignore.

The statistics, issued by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, show a labour market losing steam towards the end of the year.

A Higher‑Than‑Expected Rise in Unemployment

CNBC's reporting of the Dow Jones estimates projected that the unemployment rate would not exceed 4.4 per cent. Instead, the rate increased to 4.6 per cent, the highest level since September 2021.

The increase was especially significant since it was accompanied by favourable job creation. The US has also added 64,000 jobs, which is higher than the projected 45,000. But the headline figure also concealed more significant weaknesses, as the October data showed a loss of 105,000 jobs, compared to a previous estimate of a gain.

As seen in the report, the US unemployment rate has reached its highest level in 4 years, signalling the depth of the decline and the stress on employees amid rising layoffs and a tighter job market.

Shutdown Distortions Complicate the Picture

The November report was initially due on 5 December but was postponed due to the 43-day federal government shutdown, which hampered data collection across various agencies. This led to the October unemployment rate not being recorded, making the now-published report the first update since September.

The shutdown compelled the Bureau of Labour Statistics to allocate more time to collection and processing, which also contributed to the abnormal volatility in the figures.

Healthcare Leads Job Growth, But Other Sectors Struggle

Healthcare once again carried the central part of the employment creation, and 46,000 jobs were created in November, over 70 per cent of the entire new jobs, based on the Bureau of Labour Statistics breakdown of the data.

Other industries indicated less optimism, especially government employment, where federal payrolls dropped by 162,000 in October and by 6,000 in November, significantly increasing the total number of jobs lost during the period.

The disproportionate distribution of employment opportunities has even raised fears that the labour industry is becoming over-reliant on a single sector, exposing the economy at large to shocks.

Labour Market Cooling Despite Job Gains

Although the number of jobs created in November exceeded expectations, analysts caution that the current trend is one of diminishing pace. According to the report, the number of Americans working part-time for economic reasons, usually a symptom of labour market pressure, increased dramatically to 5.5 million, up 909,000 since September.

In the meantime, the broader unemployment indicator, which includes discouraged workers and involuntary part-time workers, rose to 8.7 per cent.

These indicators suggest that the labour market is weakening faster than headline job figures indicate.

Markets React as Rate‑Cut Odds Shift

There was a muted reaction from financial markets to the report. Though unemployment increased, traders gave low odds of a second interest rate cut in January, according to CNBC's market expectations.

The Federal Reserve has been trying to strike a balance between the need to control inflation and the chance of over-tightening. The most recent data make that task more challenging: the increase in unemployment is likely to reduce wage pressure, but the decline in job-creation rates is raising concerns about another economic recession.

A Warning Sign Heading Into 2026

The November jobs data is extensively regarded as a cautionary tale of the US economy. As the unemployment rate reaches a four-year high and job creation increasingly focuses on one sector, economists believe the labour market is entering a more vulnerable stage.

The lagging data, shutdown distortions and harsh revisions have complicated the task of determining the real condition of the economy. With the US heading toward 2026, policymakers will face increasing pressure to stabilise the labour market, which seems to be losing its grip.