Mikie Sherrill vs. Jack Ciattarelli: Will This Predict the 2026 Midterms? Millions Spent on New Jersey's Governor Race

The battle for New Jersey's governorship is already drawing national attention as Democratic congresswoman Mikie Sherrill faces Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli in what could become one of the most expensive state races in US history.

With more than $140 million (£114 million) in projected ad spending, the contest is being closely watched as a potential preview of voter sentiment heading into the 2026 Midterm elections.

Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli Breakdown

Democratic US Rep. Mikie Sherrill looks to take over for Gov. Phil Murphy, who isn't eligible for a third consecutive term. She intends to keep New Jersey blue, beating out a crowded primary field in June to stake her claim.

Meanwhile, the Republicans have Jack Ciattarelli, who served in the New Jersey General Assembly for seven years. He's lobbying for change rooted in the challenges the state faces, given Sherrill's ties to the incumbent governor amid Democratic control.

Ciattarelli says the Democrats have been in control of the state legislature for 25 years, along with 8 years of overseeing the executive branch. Despite this, he added that his opponent doesn't criticise the current administration or the 25-year reign of the Democrats.

In a statement to ABC, Sherrill outlined her campaign plans, which aim to address affordability and accountability. She also helped frame the race between Ciattarelli as having national stakes.

'New Jerseyans know what's at stake in this election, and we know that the nation is watching,' she said. 'We can choose to elect a Trump lackey who is going to do whatever the President says, and make New Jerseyans foot the bill, or we can chart a different path forward.. by delivering for working families, we're laying the groundwork for Democrats in 2026 and beyond,' she concluded.

New Jersey's Governor Race by the Numbers

As a high-profile race, millions have been spent on advertising material and campaigning efforts. This comes from national groups such as the Democratic National Committee and the Republican Governors Association.

Sherrill versus Ciattarelli is projected to see $140 million in ad spending and an expected 268% increase in spending in New Jersey's gubernatorial race. According to AdImpact, a media tracking agency, millions more have been spent in support of Sherrill, compared to Ciattarelli, as of mid-September.

There's also the matter of unaffiliated voters, who equate to over 2 million in the state of New Jersey. Still, Republicans are looking to 2024 as an example of being able to flip the governorship.

This follows Democratic candidate Kamala Harris winning the state by six percentage points that year. For reference, in 2020, Joe Biden was able to win the state by about 16 percentage points.

Kate Gibbs, executive director of the New Jersey Republican Party, weighed in through a talk with ABC News. She said the party aims to knock on 1.2 million doors, working with every local GOP organisation.

These efforts intend to narrow the gap between New Jersey's registered Democratic and Republican voters. At the start of September, there were 860,000 more registered Democrats in New Jersey than Republicans.

On Sherrill's side, they've been able to contact over 1.7 million voters since the primary. The Democrats have knocked on almost 150,000 doors, receiving donations from all 21 counties in the state.

How This Affects the 2026 Midterms

Daniel Bowen, a political science professor, said that all eyes in the country will be on New Jersey for this race. He added that it could measure how voters are looking for change.

He added that 'a fact of politics in 2025 is this distrust of politicians, distrust of those in power, dissatisfaction with where things are, and that could advantage an opposition candidate'. In other words, this race could benefit Republicans in New Jersey campaigning against a Democratic government.

Bowen also noted how 'the ways things are going' is primarily set by the federal government and the Trump administration. He believes that responding to the state of things shouldn't be directed at the state government, but rather at the federal government.