PAGASA Warns Of Christmas Typhoons: Tropical Cyclones Wilma, Yasmin May Develop Within PAR in December

The year is quickly drawing to a close, but the Philippines' annual battle with tropical cyclones is far from over. Just as residents begin preparing for the Christmas season, the state weather bureau has delivered a crucial warning: the nation must brace itself for the possible arrival of up to two more storms before 2026 begins.

Based on official climatological records, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has confirmed that one or two more tropical cyclones are expected to develop or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in December.

These potential late-year threats carry the names Typhoon Wilma and Typhoon Yasmin, ensuring that disaster preparedness remains a top priority across the archipelago until the very last days of 2025.

The agency's alert is rooted in historical data, which indicates that December often brings unpredictable, yet impactful, weather patterns.

While the peak typhoon season typically occurs between July and October, the period leading up to the new year frequently sees storms form, some of which are known as 'Christmas typhoons.'

The climatological tracks for these potential December storms are diverse, presenting different risks to various regions of the country.

Analysing The Potential Paths Of Typhoon Wilma And Typhoon Yasmin

The key concern for PAGASA is the various possible trajectories of the incoming storms, Typhoon Wilma and Typhoon Yasmin, based on historical patterns of December cyclones. Climatological data suggest that several potential tracks exist, influencing which parts of the nation must prepare for severe weather.

One common possibility is that cyclones may enter the PAR without making landfall on the Philippine islands at all. These systems are then likely to recurve toward the eastern part of the country before steering away and moving toward Japan.

Other storms may also enter the PAR but perform a similar recurvature before they can reach northern or north-eastern areas, again heading away from the Philippines and moving on to Japan.

While these non-landfalling tracks spare the country the worst damage, the outer rain bands and monsoon enhancement can still bring heavy rainfall and rough seas to the eastern seaboard.

For cyclones that do make landfall, the potential paths are far more dangerous and geographically varied. Storms following a certain track may cross Northern or Central Luzon before exiting the PAR toward Hong Kong.

Meanwhile, cyclones moving toward Vietnam may bring significant effects and heavy rainfall to Southern Luzon, extending down to Northern Visayas.

Finally, storms taking a direction toward Thailand could affect Southern Visayas all the way down to Northern Mindanao, demonstrating the wide geographical area vulnerable to these late-season threats.

Immediate Weather Outlook: Preparing For Typhoon Wilma And Typhoon Yasmin

While the nation awaits the possible arrival of Typhoon Wilma and Typhoon Yasmin in December, the immediate weekly weather outlook from PAGASA indicates that multiple weather systems are already influencing conditions across the country. The period from Saturday, November 29, to Friday, December 5, shows a mixture of winds and rain.

On Saturday, November 29, Northern Luzon—specifically Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Mountain Province, Quirino, and Nueva Vizcaya—is expected to experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and isolated thunderstorms due to the shear line.

The shear line is a significant weather system formed by the collision of cold north-easterly winds (amihan) and warm easterly winds.

The amihan, or north-east monsoon, will also bring mostly cloudy skies with scattered to isolated rains over the Ilocos Region, Benguet, Abra, and Batanes, while the rest of the country sees partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated showers or thunderstorms caused by the easterlies.

Moving into the week, from Monday to Wednesday (December 1 to 3), the amihan will continue to affect Batanes, Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte, bringing mostly cloudy skies with scattered to isolated rains. The rest of the country will remain partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms from the easterlies.

Finally, by Thursday and Friday (December 4 and 5), the trough of a Low-Pressure Area (LPA) is expected to trigger scattered rains and isolated thunderstorms over the Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Oriental, while the amihan continues to lightly affect the Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Cagayan Valley.

The rest of the country will continue to experience the effects of the easterlies with isolated rain showers.