US Tariff Threats Could Push BRICS Toward the Rival Bloc Washington Fears, Report Warns

Donald Trump's repeated threats to hit BRICS nations with steep tariffs may be achieving the opposite of what Washington intends, according to a new analysis from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft published the research brief, titled 'Crying Wolf? The United States and BRICS in the Global Order', on 31 August 2026.

Its author, Sarang Shidore, director of the Quincy Institute's Global South Program, argues that BRICS is a 'reformist, not radical' coalition, but warns that US pressure is reinforcing the very reasons countries join it.

What the Report Argues

BRICS, made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia, is not a formal alliance and has no charter in the treaty sense, according to the analysis.

Saudi Arabia remains undecided about full membership, while Argentina declined its invitation. Shidore writes that the group's members are bound together mainly by shared interests in state sovereignty, multilateralism and economic development, rather than by a coordinated anti-American agenda.

The brief states that 'the more the US disrupts the multilateral framework, the more it reinforces the very rationale' that fuels the grouping's growth. In other words, US pressure may be doing more to encourage BRICS members to work together than any internal coordination BRICS has managed on its own.

Trump's Escalating Threats

The pattern of pressure the report points to stretches back to before Trump took office for his second term. In November 2024, then President-elect Trump demanded a 'commitment' from BRICS states that they would neither create a new currency nor support another currency to replace the US dollar, threatening 100 per cent tariffs if they did.

He repeated the warning as president in February 2025, then escalated again in July 2025, saying that 'BRICS was set up to hurt us' and to 'degenerate our dollar and take our dollar' from its position as the global standard.

The pressure extended to individual member states, according to individuals familiar with the matter. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told India in September 2025 to 'stop buying Russian oil, stop being a part of BRICS... and support the United States and the dollar or face a 50 per cent tariff'.

Does the Threat Hold Up

The report is careful not to overstate the danger to Washington. It notes that the dollar accounts for 57 per cent of global foreign-exchange reserves, 54 per cent of global export invoicing and 89 per cent of foreign-exchange transactions, and that no other currency, including China's renminbi, comes close to challenging it.

BRICS members are themselves divided on how far to push de-dollarisation. Brazil and India have explicitly denied wanting to create a rival currency, while Russia is the most enthusiastic member about de-dollarisation.

China's enthusiasm is described as lukewarm, and most Global South members remain wary of arrangements that could increase dependence on the renminbi.

What It Means Going Forward

The implication is a slow-burn risk rather than an immediate one. BRICS lacks the infrastructure and internal unity to seriously challenge the dollar today.

But continued tariff threats and sanctions could increase incentives for members to develop alternatives, including a BRICS-wide payment system that could operate outside US-influenced financial networks and rival the dollar-dependent SWIFT system.

The report says further steps are expected at the bloc's next summit in New Delhi, although technical and legal hurdles remain.

The brief's central recommendation to Washington is a change of approach entirely.

It urges US policymakers to accept a less unipolar world, engage with BRICS institutions like the New Development Bank, and repair ties with Brazil and India.

If the report's warning proves accurate, the consequences would stretch well beyond BRICS summits and trade statistics.

A gradual weakening of the dollar's dominance could reduce some of Washington's financial and sanctions leverage, giving other countries more room to develop alternatives outside US-influenced financial networks.

But the report does not suggest an imminent collapse of dollar dominance. Instead, it describes a gradual process that could play out over years rather than headlines.