Eye of the Storm
Eye of the Storm Pixabay/Pexels

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June to 30 November, has been far quieter than expected. By mid-September, just six named storms have formed, with Hurricane Erin the only major system so far. Forecasters are still watching closely, tracking storm names, forecast updates and the bigger picture for Atlantic activity.

Current State of the 2025 Season

The basin's start has been unusually subdued. Even as the season's peak approached in early to mid-September, no tropical storms or hurricanes were active as of 10 September, a stark contrast to the usual surge in activity at this time of year.

According to the Washington Post, the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is well below the long-term average, underscoring the lack of activity.

Meteorologists point to several factors. Outbreaks of Saharan dust have dried out and stabilised the atmosphere, reducing convection needed for storm growth. Wind shear, which disrupts storm circulation, and layers of dry air across the mid-Atlantic have further hindered development. These conditions explain why several tropical waves emerging from Africa have failed to intensify.

Official List of 2025 Atlantic Storm Names

Each year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) publishes a list of names for Atlantic tropical storms, cycling them every six years unless a name is retired due to catastrophic impact.

So far, the 2025 season has produced storms named Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Erin. Andrea formed in June over open waters, while Barry and Chantal made landfall in Mexico and the Carolinas respectively. Erin, the most powerful storm of the season, rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane.

The remaining names for 2025 are as follows, according to NOAA:

  • Fernand
  • Gabrielle
  • Humberto
  • Imelda
  • Jerry
  • Karen
  • Lorenzo
  • Melissa
  • Nestor
  • Olga
  • Pablo
  • Rebekah
  • Sebastien
  • Tanya
  • Van
  • Wendy

If Erin's impact is deemed significant enough, meteorologists may recommend retiring the name when the WMO reviews the season.

Forecast Updates and Expert Predictions

Despite the current lull, forecasters continue to predict above-normal activity for the season overall. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects between 13 and 19 named storms, with 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.

Colorado State University's forecast is similar, projecting 16 to 17 named storms, 8 to 9 hurricanes and 3 to 4 major hurricanes.

AccuWeather's most recent forecast ranges from 13 to 16 named storms, warning of potential rapid intensification in late-season systems.

Experts suggest the Madden–Julian Oscillation, a weather pattern that can encourage storm development, may shift into a phase more favourable for tropical activity later in September and October.

Some climatologists also note that a possible transition to La Niña could reduce wind shear in the Atlantic, creating more supportive conditions for cyclone formation.

Notable Storms and Their Impacts in 2025

Although fewer in number, storms this year have already had consequences. Tropical Storm Barry made landfall in Mexico before its remnants contributed to severe flooding in Texas, where dozens of fatalities were reported.

Tropical Storm Chantal brought heavy rainfall to the Carolinas, causing flash flooding and more than US$50 million in damages in Orange County alone.

Hurricane Erin stands out as one of the largest Atlantic hurricanes in terms of wind field since Hurricane Sandy in 2012. It remained offshore the United States but generated dangerous surf and rip currents along the East Coast. Erin also caused flooding in Cape Verde, resulting in fatalities and highlighting how even distant storms can create significant hazards.

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